Huo Xing Cai Jing reports, according to Cointelegraph, CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost stated that Bitcoin’s unspent transaction output (UTXO) data shows the ratio of loss-making trades to profit-making trades has fallen to the lowest level of this bear market cycle, indicating that investors are entering a clear “capitulation” phase. This indicator has previously triggered multiple times at historical cycle bottoms. The last similar low occurred during the mid-2023 bear market depth, when Bitcoin’s price briefly dropped to around $26,000; analysts believe such phases typically correspond to extreme market pessimism, as long-term investors begin gradually accumulating again. Darkfost noted this is the first time this signal has triggered since the start of this correction, indicating a significant rise in the number of UTXOs being sold at a loss, reflecting broader selling and capitulation behavior. He also added that the Bitcoin Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) of long-term holders is gradually entering negative territory.
Bitcoin UTXO metrics suggest the market is entering a 'surrender phase' and nearing the cycle bottom.
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Bitcoin analysis from CryptoQuant shows UTXO data reaching a bear market low, with unprofitable trades versus profitable trades at their weakest level. This pattern has historically signaled a market “surrender” phase, similar to mid-2023 when Bitcoin prices were reported near $26,000. Long-term holder Bitcoin SOPR is also trending negative, suggesting a potential cycle bottom.
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