Foreign media report that despite multiple negative factors emerging simultaneously, Bitcoin has risen to around $87,000, indicating that this rally is not solely driven by news events. The article attributes the rise to three factors: large-scale liquidation of short positions, no significant withdrawal of institutional funds, and continued growth in derivatives open interest.
Over $1 billion settled in 24 hours
As of press time, Bitcoin is trading at $86,767.30, up 1.1% in the last 24 hours and 14.6% over the past seven days, having briefly touched $87,000—the highest level in nearly eight months. During the rally, over $1 billion in crypto positions were liquidated within 24 hours.
Of this, approximately $843 million came from short positions, accounting for 84% of the total liquidation volume. The article noted that during the most volatile hour, liquidations exceeded $300 million, with 97% of those being short positions. The buying pressure from forced liquidations further pushed prices higher, triggering additional stop-losses on shorts at higher levels.
Negative factors are concentrated, but buying pressure remains.
The article mentions that the market has recently faced three types of pressure. First, the U.S. Senate failed to pass the CLARITY Act; the bill lost the vote 49 to 50, falling short of the votes needed to advance. Following the announcement, the stock prices of Coinbase and Circle both declined.
Second, the Federal Reserve implemented a 25-basis-point rate hike under new Chair Kevin Walsh, marking its first rate increase since 2023. Meanwhile, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield has remained above 5%, and the Bank of Japan also raised interest rates during the same period.
Third, the AI sector weakened. After Anthropic co-founder Dario Amodei published a post discussing industry safety concerns, related worries spread rapidly, causing the semiconductor index to drop more than 5% in a single day, with stocks such as NVIDIA, ASML, and SoftBank under pressure.
However, the article argues that these negative factors have not affected the operation, transactions, or custody of the Bitcoin network, nor have they significantly disrupted market buying. Between September 14 and 20, Strategy disclosed additional purchases of 950 Bitcoin, costing $75 million.
ETF inflows and rising holdings
The spot ETF funding flow has also fluctuated. On the day the bill vote failed, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced a net outflow of approximately $450 million, marking the largest single-day redemption since June. However, three trading days later, they recorded a net inflow of about $433 million.
The article also noted that Morgan Stanley’s related Bitcoin ETF has experienced net inflows for 20 consecutive trading days. Meanwhile, Bitcoin futures open interest did not decline after the rate hike but instead increased by 7.5% to approximately $156 billion. According to this, this rally reflects not only short covering but also ongoing new demand entering the market.
It has also shown strength despite adverse market conditions in the past.
The article concludes by noting that Bitcoin has historically risen most strongly during periods of peak pessimism. After China’s crackdown on mining in 2021, global hash rate plummeted, yet Bitcoin still reached new highs in the following months. After the collapse of FTX in 2022, the market hit its bottom; and following the U.S. banking turmoil and the brief depegging of USDC in 2023, Bitcoin also experienced a significant rebound.
Conversely, some events perceived as industry positives do not necessarily correspond directly to price increases. The article cites examples: after Coinbase listed on Nasdaq in 2021, Bitcoin reached a阶段性 peak; following the approval of spot ETFs in early 2024, the price also declined from around $49,000.