Bitcoin Surpasses $65K Amid Weak U.S. Jobs Data

Headline: Bitcoin breaks $65K after surprise U.S. jobs contraction, Fed bets cool Bitcoin jumped above $65,000 after U.S. payrolls unexpectedly fell in July, weakening the case for another Federal Reserve rate hike and prompting traders to pare back bets on higher rates. The data: U.S. nonfarm payrolls dropped by 23,000 in July, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported — far below economists’ forecasts of a 80,000–85,000 gain. It was the third-largest monthly payroll decline since 2020 and a sharp reversal from June’s revised 57,000 gain. Revisions to May and June removed a combined 103,000 jobs from prior estimates, suggesting labor demand is softer than first thought. Other labor-market details: the unemployment rate ticked down to 4.1% (consensus 4.2%), while annual wage growth cooled to 3.2%, another sign of easing tightness in the jobs market. Market reaction: Bitcoin traded around $65,200 after the report, up nearly 2% on the day. The move followed earlier selling pressure tied to the possibility of a September Fed hike. Repriced Fed odds: traders quickly adjusted rate expectations. Polymarket’s probability of a rate increase before the end of 2026 fell to 56% (from a recent peak of 77%), while the chance the Fed leaves rates unchanged in September rose to about 66% (from roughly 50% a day earlier). What strategists are saying: - Iggy Ioppe, CIO at Theo, told crypto.news that a single weak jobs print may not be enough to shift the Fed’s stance while energy and shipping risks remain elevated. He pointed to oil-price pressure and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and Red Sea as factors keeping inflation and policy uncertainty alive — limiting Bitcoin’s upside even as lower rate odds provide medium-term support. - Andrei Grachev, managing partner at DWF Labs, noted the options market was pricing significant downside protection: end-August put premiums were trading roughly 50% above equivalent calls. If that premium narrows after the soft print, it would indicate caution was primarily about rates; if it holds, traders are likely hedging geopolitical or inflation risks. Grachev also said upside positioning has rebuilt around $70,000, suggesting traders are preparing for a rally without full conviction. - Fabian Dori, CIO at Sygnum Bank, said the Fed needs to determine whether the slowdown is a manageable cooling or a more persistent demand deterioration. He flagged labor-force participation, Treasury cash balances, changes to bank leverage rules, private credit creation and stablecoin flows as key liquidity variables for digital assets. What’s next: markets will watch the U.S. consumer price index on Aug. 12 for clues on whether energy and transport costs are keeping inflation higher despite a softer labor market. For Bitcoin, a cooler CPI could help push prices toward $70,000; a hotter reading would revive rate-hike bets and could test Bitcoin’s recovery above $65,000.