BlockBeats news, July 10: Global markets continue to price in three key themes simultaneously: Federal Reserve reform, the U.S. AI capital race, and geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East.
Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh officially announced five reform working groups covering core areas such as inflation, the balance sheet, economic data, productivity, and policy communication, incorporating participation from the technology industry, academia, and business leaders. This signals that markets will need to focus not only on interest rate policy but also on whether the Fed’s broader decision-making framework is gradually shifting—including reducing forward guidance, redefining economic data, and adjusting balance sheet management—potentially leading to greater policy uncertainty than in recent years.
On the other hand, capital expenditures in the AI industry continue to expand. OpenAI has launched the GPT-5.6 series of models, Micron has announced an increase in its U.S. investment to over $250 billion, and Meta has denied concerns about compute oversupply, emphasizing that renting out computing power also holds commercial value. These developments indicate that major tech companies are still heavily investing in AI infrastructure, reinforcing AI as a key global investment theme.
Geopolitically, the U.S.-Iran conflict continues to maintain a state of coexisting military confrontation and technical negotiations. Although both sides have engaged in military actions and the ceasefire agreement has effectively collapsed, technical negotiations have not ceased, and the U.S. has not resumed full-scale military operations. Oman has publicly opposed tolls on transit through the Strait of Hormuz, reflecting ongoing efforts by all parties to preserve the order of energy transportation and reduce the likelihood of full-scale conflict. The market is currently pricing not in peace, but in the possibility that the global energy supply chain will continue to function at a basic level in the short term.
In addition, Deutsche Bank notes that the structure of how the U.S. attracts foreign capital is gradually shifting from "buying U.S. Treasuries" to "buying U.S. stocks," with the dollar’s stability beginning to rely more on the cyclical health of the AI industry than on traditional safe-haven demand. If this trend continues, global capital flows will become increasingly concentrated in technology assets with high growth potential, also implying that volatility in both the dollar and risk assets may rise in tandem.
In the crypto market, Bitcoin successfully broke through the $63,000 resistance level yesterday, with $79.5 million in short positions liquidated over the past 24 hours, pushing the price briefly toward $64,000. Currently, $64,000 remains the most important short-term resistance level; if it is firmly held, it could signal further improvement in market risk appetite. Conversely, if the breakout fails, watch for short-term volatility driven by profit-taking. Overall, the market is not rising simply because negative factors have disappeared, but rather due to a recalibration of risk premiums across asset classes amid global institutional reforms, AI-driven capital expansion, and geopolitical risks that have not yet spiraled out of control.