A key on-chain metric for Bitcoin is flashing a signal that has preceded every major bull market since 2012. More than 71% of Bitcoin’s circulating supply is currently sitting in unrealized profit, according to Bitfinex, approaching the zone that has historically marked the transition from bearish to bullish market phases.
The numbers behind the signal
The metric, which tracks what percentage of all circulating Bitcoin was last moved at a price lower than the current spot price, has been climbing steadily throughout the summer. On August 27, Bitcoin closed at $80,256, pushing 72.1% of the supply into profit territory.
That reading didn’t stick. As prices pulled back in subsequent sessions, the figure dipped to 67.7%, illustrating just how sensitive the metric is to relatively modest price swings.
By early September, with Bitcoin trading near $77,381, the supply in profit had settled around 68%, according to data from Glassnode and CryptoQuant. That represents a meaningful improvement from roughly 65% earlier in the year.
Since 2012, durable market recoveries have required the supply in profit to reach at least 64%. Sustained movements through the 60-70% range have consistently preceded more robust bullish trends.
Not quite all clear
CryptoQuant reported that as of August 28, approximately $617 billion in invested capital remained underwater. As Bitcoin climbs toward the price levels where those coins were originally purchased, their holders face a decision: hold for further gains or sell to break even, creating resistance zones that can slow or stall rallies.
Short-term holders telling a quieter story
One of the more nuanced signals comes from the short-term holder Spent Output Profit Ratio, or SOPR. This metric tracks whether recent buyers are selling at a profit or a loss when they move their coins.
Current SOPR readings show that many short-term holders are exiting positions at or near their breakeven price. Rather than dumping at steep losses, the data suggests a controlled rotation of supply without the kind of forced liquidation that characterizes market bottoms or panic-driven crashes.
What could tip the balance
ETF inflows have been a major demand driver throughout 2026, and any acceleration or deceleration in those flows could meaningfully shift the supply-demand equation. Rate cuts tend to benefit risk assets like Bitcoin by reducing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding investments, while hawkish surprises can trigger rapid deleveraging.
The $80,256 level reached in late August now serves as a near-term reference point. If Bitcoin can reclaim and hold above that price, the supply in profit would likely push back above 72%. A retreat below $77,000 could push the metric back toward 65%, resetting months of progress. With $617 billion in capital still waiting to break even, every rally will face sellers that the market needs to absorb before moving higher.