Bitcoin Stalls Around $80,000 Amid ETF Outflows and Strategic Buybacks

Written by Cathy

Last week, the strategy did not purchase a single Bitcoin—the first time in several weeks.

Spot ETFs saw net outflows exceeding $300 million in October, while the real yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries approached 3%. However, nearly 70% of all network holdings remain in profit, with long-term holders' average cost well below $50,000.

$80,000 is not a crash—it's a handoff between longs and shorts.

Bitcoin has been trading sideways around $80,000 throughout October. On-chain data explains why: this price level is trapped between two key cost thresholds.

Upward pressure comes from spot ETF investors. Glassnode data shows that the weighted average cost basis for U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs is approximately $81,500.

Each time the price rebounds to this range, it encounters a large number of holders waiting to break even and exit. They entered at high prices at the end of 2025 and beginning of 2026, have been underwater for months, and tend to sell as soon as they recover their cost.

There are two levels of support below. The first is the true market average price (the average purchase cost across the entire market after excluding long-term stagnant coins), around $77,500 to $78,000. The second is the average cost of short-term holders (those who have held their coins for less than 155 days), around $74,600.

$80,000 is stuck in the middle: above, sellers are eager to exit; below, the support level hasn't been reached yet.

But when you zoom out, the underlying structure is much more stable than it appears on the surface. The network realized price—the weighted average price of all Bitcoin’s last on-chain transactions—is around $54,000, while the average cost basis for long-term holders (those who have held their coins for over six months) is only about $49,000.

Both lines have a buffer of more than 30% from a distance of 80,000.

The percentage of tokens trading at a profit across the network remains close to 70%. Meanwhile, Bitcoin reserves on exchanges continue their long-term downward trend, reaching multi-year lows. October saw no concentrated panic buying of Bitcoin, nor large-scale withdrawals by whales to hoard assets, resulting in a continued contraction of spot supply available for immediate trading.

This means that once new buying emerges, the resistance to upward price movement is thinner than the support against downward breakdown. The short-term battle is raging between $75,000 and $82,000, but the foundation of the bull market remains intact.

Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) is the publicly traded company with the largest holding of Bitcoin and has been the most consistent large-scale buyer over the past two years. However, in the third week of October, its purchase record showed a zero.

It's not that I don't want to buy—it's just that I spent the money elsewhere.

Strategy issued a preferred stock called STRC to raise funds for buying cryptocurrencies. However, this stock carries an annualized dividend yield of 12%, with dividends distributed every two weeks, placing significant cash pressure on the company.

To reduce this expense, management repurchased a large number of STRC shares on the secondary market. Between October 19 and 25 alone, the company spent $204.9 million to repurchase over 2.06 million shares, saving approximately $24.8 million annually in dividends.

The cost was a halt in Bitcoin buying. In the first two weeks of October, there were sporadic purchases—250 BTC in the first week and 267 BTC in the second—before dropping to zero in the third week. During the same period, the company suspended common stock issuance, cutting off new sources of funding.

October monthly capital allocation: For every $1 spent on buying crypto, $9.18 was spent on repurchasing preferred shares.

Free cash decreased from $640.5 million at the beginning of the month to $242.4 million, a 62% decline in one month.

In mid-October, MSCI announced new rules to remove companies lacking substantial business operations from the Global Investable Market Indexes, effective November 30. Strategy is among the first companies under review, with associated funds holding approximately 3% of its outstanding shares.

An additional expectation of selling pressure led management to further scale back its asset expansion efforts.

However, the Strategy did not exit. As of October 25, it held approximately 848,500 Bitcoin, with an average cost of $75,446, still realizing a floating profit of about 6% at a price of $80,000. Pausing additional purchases and liquidating positions are two different actions.

Fidelity Digital Assets analyst Zack Wainwright provided a broader perspective in a report on October 20: companies that have purchased Bitcoin by issuing preferred shares have collectively acquired approximately 136,000 BTC, representing 0.5% of Bitcoin’s total supply.

From March to May 2026, these companies acquired 95,000 BTC through $7 billion in funding. Fidelity believes such products bridge the gap between crypto assets and the global $150 trillion fixed-income market.

But bridges have weight limits. Fidelity also warns: this model only works if the asset's price appreciates over the long term faster than the dividend cost. If sideways or downward movement persists for too long, additional buying could instead become a source of liquidity risk.

The volatility in October ETF fund flows is uncommon even for seasoned investors.

On October 19, BlackRock’s IBIT recorded a net inflow of $665.2 million, driving a total market inflow of $526.6 million for the day. Two days later, on October 21, it attracted another $528.4 million.

But just one day later, on October 22, the market-wide net outflow reached $635.5 million, marking the largest single-day redemption in nearly four months.

Combined three-day data: +527 million, +528 million, -636 million. Institutional funds are sharply divided at the $80,000 level.

One trigger was macroeconomic data. The September CPI, released on October 14, exceeded expectations, causing ETFs to shift from net inflows to net redemptions of $261.5 million that day. Outflows continued for the following week, culminating in a concentrated surge on October 22.

As of October 23, the month-to-date net outflow for U.S. spot ETFs totaled approximately $312 million.

But when viewed over a longer time horizon, the story is entirely different. Although there was indeed significant redemption pressure during the summer of 2026, institutional capital strongly returned by late September, quickly offsetting the previous deficit.

As of the end of October, the full-year 2026 net inflow remains near $17.5 billion. Since approval in January 2024, the total historical net inflow for all U.S. spot ETFs has reached $57.2 billion, with assets under management exceeding $105 billion.

Products are diverging internally. BlackRock’s IBIT has seen continuous net inflows this year, while Fidelity’s FBTC has turned to net outflows. Funds are accelerating toward leading products.

2024 was the first year of spot ETF listings, with funds flowing in one direction. In 2025, this momentum continued. By 2026, the curve shifted from exponential growth to bidirectional volatility.

The net outflow in October was not a structural retreat, but a normal pause during the normalization process. Slowing growth and a crash are two entirely different trajectories.

The 10-year U.S. Treasury TIPS real yield (the actual return on Treasuries after inflation) ranged between 2.64% and 2.80% in October, briefly approaching 3%. This is the highest level since 2008.

The meaning is straightforward: U.S. Treasuries offer nearly 3% in risk-free real returns annually. For institutions managing tens of billions of dollars, the bar for choosing an asset that generates no interest becomes much higher.

The Federal Reserve's current benchmark interest rate remains at 3.75% to 4.00%. CME FedWatch indicates an over 80% probability that the market expects no rate change in October. The U.S. Dollar Index has traded between 101 and 103 during the same period, approaching its yearly high in mid-October. Higher interest rates strengthen the dollar, directly suppressing risk assets denominated in U.S. dollars.

Bitcoin ETFs, while opening up traditional capital channels, also expose themselves to every pulse of the interest rate cycle.

But the other side is equally true. Throughout October, exchange reserves remained at multi-year lows, with no panic-driven deposits or aggressive large-scale withdrawals. The筹码 entered a period of extremely low turnover and观望.

Unlike the frantic buying sprees in a bull market or the panic sell-offs in a bear market.

Both interpretations are valid.

One scenario is consolidation at high levels. Below $80,000, there is a deep cost zone between $49,000 and $54,000 acting as a safety cushion, with nearly 70% of all circulating supply still in profit. Exchange reserves are at historical lows, limiting the volume of sellable coins. Mike Novogratz, founder of Galaxy Digital, has publicly expressed confidence in the $80,000 support level, suggesting a potential push toward $100,000 by year-end.

Another is a lack of buying demand. Three forces are simultaneously slowing down: major institutional buyers have paused their accumulation, ETFs are experiencing monthly net outflows, and risk-free interest rates are approaching 3%. If macroeconomic tightening expectations further intensify, the next true level to test will be between $75,000 and $78,000.

Where the next big money is coming from, $80,000 is going there.