Bitcoin entered October's final week struggling to maintain support at $80,000 ahead of major US economic releases and corporate earnings. Bitcoin would finish October down 4% if the monthly closing price remains near $80,000, marking a second consecutive October decline. Almost $150 million in long positions were liquidated within two hours on Saturday as Bitcoin dropped to $79,145. The $80,000 threshold did not hold as short-term support despite the level's psychological significance. CoinGlass data shows $73 million in buy orders supporting prices above $79,300, with sell orders concentrated near $81,000.
CoinGlass data puts Bitcoin's average October gain since 2010 at 26.1%, a record that inspired the nickname "Uptober". Bitcoin lost 3.9% in October 2025. Bitcoin subsequently fell another 17.5% in November. CoinGlass data puts the historical average November return at 35%.
The Federal Reserve will announce the next federal funds rate decision on Wednesday. Markets assign more than 90% probability to rates remaining within the current 3.75% to 4% range. FedWatch data indicates that market consensus favors a 0.25% increase at December's Federal Open Market Committee meeting. Markets will also scrutinize Fed chair Kevin Warsh's remarks during the press conference accompanying Wednesday's decision.
Economist Robin Brooks said markets priced a 12% probability of an increase this week, contrasting with pressure on Warsh to raise rates in July. Brooks described the subdued expectations as temporary relief for Warsh after contentious meetings earlier in 2026. Brooks argued last week that a pause was nearly certain despite higher oil prices and mounting concerns about military escalation in the Middle East. Brent crude touched $117 per barrel on Friday, the highest price since March 19. Brent subsequently retreated to about $110 on Monday.
Brooks argued that even oil at $125 would not compel the Fed to raise rates. Brooks said that scenario would intensify France's debt crisis, increase concerns about AI and data center debt, and push the S&P 500 lower. Brooks argued that sharply tighter financial conditions would make a rate increase undesirable. The US will release the Personal Consumption Expenditures index, the Fed's preferred inflation measure, on Thursday. Last month's PCE reading was below expectations at 3.4% year-on-year. Analysts attributed the decline to revised calculation methods for certain index components.
Concerns about the AI sector continued to weigh on equities on Monday before Wall Street opened. South Korea's KOSPI Composite Index ended Monday at 5,469 points, down 1.5%, after attempting a recovery late last week. The KOSPI fell to 5,308 on Friday, the lowest level since late July, as foreign capital sought safety through substantial technology-stock selling. Stronger-than-expected US earnings last week failed to improve sentiment as investors focused instead on Tesla's lower third-quarter capital expenditure. The Nasdaq Composite ended Friday at 25,955 points, the lowest daily closing level since August 3.
JPMorgan Asset Management's Raisah Rasid said on Monday that investors were rewarding returns on capital rather than capital expenditure in the AI sector. Microsoft and Alphabet will publish third-quarter results after Wednesday's market close. Amazon and Intel will report on Thursday. About 20% of S&P 500 companies will release earnings this week. The US will also publish third-quarter GDP figures on Thursday.
Market participants have become more cautious about a Bitcoin recovery under current macroeconomic conditions. Benjamin Cowen, founder of crypto analytics platform Into the Cryptoverse, called Bitcoin's moves to $87,000 in late September and early October a "fakeout". Cowen said on Monday that Bitcoin should remain weak through year-end, citing historical patterns of downward pressure around US midterm election years. The resistance area near $87,000 includes the 2026 opening price of $87,490 and the 20-month moving average of $87,165.
Bitcoin Struggles to Hold $80,000 Amid Macroeconomic Uncertainty
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Summary
Bitcoin news shows the price struggling to hold $80,000 as macroeconomic uncertainty weighs on markets. Over $150 million in longs were liquidated after Bitcoin dropped to $79,145. Buy orders cluster above $79,300, while sells build near $81,000. Traders are watching altcoins to watch for signs of broader market sentiment. The Fed’s rate decision on Wednesday and potential hikes in December add to the cautious outlook.
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