Bitcoin stalls below $82,000 as 10-year U.S. Treasury yields reach 4.8%

Article by Glassnode

Translated by AididiaoJP, Foresight News

After a brief market euphoria following the short squeeze in mid-August, Bitcoin stalled below the long-term overhead resistance. Sovereign bond yields hit a new high for this cycle, ETF secondary trading remained weak, and prices retreated back into a well-defined trading range.

• The short squeeze in August drove the spot price to around $80,000, where it soon encountered the anticipated upward resistance.
• When price retraced to the same level in May, on-chain unrealized profit supply increased from 65% to 68%, indicating heavier potential selling pressure after summer position reallocation.
• Spot Bitcoin ETFs peaked at daily inflows of $290 million, but daily trading volume on the secondary market remains around $3 billion, resembling more of a news-driven pulse without sustained momentum.
• Macro pressure returns: The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rises to 4.8%, erasing all the relief from the Treasury's buyback program in just eight trading days.
• Short-term option skew has declined as market sentiment cools; the quarter-end expiration on September 25 created an open interest barrier of approximately $14 billion.

Last week’s report noted that the short squeeze on August 19 liquidated significant leverage, but the rally was encountering dense overhead resistance. This scenario played out last week: after price surged to $80,000 on August 27, it met sustained supply, pulled back to around $76,000, and triggered a cascade of long liquidations.

The futures liquidation heatmap shows the price trapped between two structural levels. The upward impulse has swept up short positions along the way but has not reached the dense short liquidation zone between $83,000 and $86,000; below, the long liquidation fuel between $60,000 and $63,000 remains intact. Currently, the price is pinned between these two boundaries.

The hidden friction in this rally is embedded in the network’s profit structure. When Bitcoin was around $78,000 in May, approximately 65% of the supply was in profit; by late August, when spot prices returned to the same level, the percentage of profitable supply had risen to 68%.

The change stems from summer accumulation—short-term holders' cost basis has been reset to around $71,000. With the same nominal price, a larger portion of profitable positions can be activated, leading to deeper potential selling liquidity should spot prices retest previous highs.

Overlaying the on-chain cost model with the chip distribution reveals clear box boundaries: below spot, a solid accumulation base formed during the summer consolidation between $62,000 and $65,000; above, long-term holders have accumulated heavy positions between $83,000 and $86,000. Spot remains confined within these two price ranges.

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have continued to attract inflows during the rebound, with the 7-day average net inflow rising to $290 million per day. However, secondary trading has been quieter: daily ETF trading volume remains around $3 billion, significantly lower than during previous expansion phases. Inflows driven by isolated policy news, without broader market momentum, often signal local turning points—once the catalyst passes, prices tend to retrace.

The broader environment quickly tightened again. On August 19, news of the Treasury's buyback temporarily pushed the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield down to around 4.6%, but it then reversed sharply. Over the next eight trading days, the yield returned to 4.8%, reaching a new high for this cycle. The rapid reversal underscores that sovereign debt pressures remain the primary driver of global discount rates.

At the early stage of the rebound, Bitcoin briefly decoupled from traditional equity indices, while U.S. stocks remained range-bound. Over the rolling 30-day period, Bitcoin’s correlation coefficient with the S&P 500 drifted toward zero. Historically, such sudden decoupling during sovereign bond sell-offs has typically been short-lived, resembling localized exhaustion rather than a systemic regime shift.

The options market recorded a sharp psychological shift over the past two weeks. The 7-day 25-delta skew index surged during the squeeze as the market rushed to buy call options; after resistance held, the indicator quickly reverted to its mean, nearing neutrality. The 180-day skew remained stable throughout, indicating that short-term enthusiasm has cooled, but the underlying structure of long-term options demand remains intact.

The forward options landscape is dominated by the quarter-end expiry on September 25, with combined open interest on Deribit and IBIT totaling approximately $14 billion. A significant portion of positions is concentrated at strike prices above $80,000, making the imminent quarter-end expiry a key anchor for volatility and positioning over the coming weeks.

The post-short-squeeze rebound has stalled below the supply zone at $83,000–$86,000. Network profitability is higher at equivalent price levels, sovereign bond yields have hit new cycle highs, and options markets have returned to neutrality—market sentiment remains confined within the existing range. Until the overhead resistance is absorbed, the structural support at $62,000–$65,000 remains the primary downside reference.