Bitcoin Stabilizes Near $80,000 Amid ETF Inflows and Market Analysis

Original author: ChandlerZ, Foresight News

From August 17 to 23, Bitcoin rose from $62,818 to $77,593, according to Galaxy Research, marking a weekly increase of $14,775—the largest single-week dollar gain in Bitcoin’s history. In percentage terms, the 23.5% rise ranks 41st out of 840 weekly candles since July 2010, but it is the highest weekly gain since March 2023.

As the price base of Bitcoin rises, a gain ranking only 41st in historical percentage terms can now generate amounts never seen before.

As of August 28, Bitcoin reversed downward after breaking above $81,500 and continues to fluctuate near the $80,000 level. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have become a key indicator of whether this rally can be sustained; according to daily totals from Farside Investors, net inflows totaled $2.8019 billion over eight consecutive trading days from August 17 to 26, bringing the cumulative net inflow to approximately $3.282 billion as of August 26.

Glassnode divides this market cycle into two phases: the short liquidation on August 19 triggered the upward move, followed by spot funding from ETF inflows, declining exchange balances, and increased holdings across wallet sizes. Between August 14 and 25, BTC-denominated open interest in futures fell from 645,760 BTC to 587,584 BTC, a decline of approximately 9.0%, reaching its lowest level in nearly five months. During the same period, open interest backed by BTC and other crypto assets as margin dropped to around 52,000 BTC, accounting for just 11% of total futures open interest, with cash and stablecoin margins now dominating.

In addition, the current perpetual contract funding rate is mostly close to neutral, indicating that closed short positions have not been immediately replaced by a large number of leveraged long positions.

Based on existing evidence, this rally is supported by genuine buying pressure, and $80,000 remains under pressure testing. Short-term debate centers on whether the supply zone between $81,000 and $86,000 can be absorbed, while the medium-term debate focuses on whether this rally represents a cycle reversal or merely a rapid recovery within a bear market framework.

On-chain data shows that the $80,000 level has formed one of the most concentrated resistance zones in its history. According to Glassnode’s Entity-Adjusted Realized Price Distribution (URPD), nearly 8% of Bitcoin’s circulating supply is clustered in the $80,000 to $82,000 range, with alone $80,000 accounting for approximately 5% of all coins—the highest concentration at any single price level. This means that if the price returns to this region, a large number of investors who bought at these levels will return to their cost basis, potentially triggering concentrated selling and forming what is known as a supply wall.

$78,000 is also a significant level, holding approximately 3.7% of the supply, while $82,000 ranks as the fourth most concentrated price level. Investors who accumulated positions during the 2024–2025 rally are now waiting for an opportunity to break even after the price correction from late 2025 to early 2026. Historical patterns show that when price returns to areas with heavy筹码 turnover, selling pressure from short-term holders often amplifies resistance.

Metrics tracked independently by Glassnode show that the average cost basis for U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs also falls within the $80,000 to $82,000 range. As ETFs are among the most significant sources of new capital in the market, the behavior of their holders significantly influences price. When the price approaches this “break-even line,” some institutional or retail investors may choose to redeem or sell, further reinforcing selling pressure in this region.

From a technical perspective, Bitcoin remains below the 50-week moving average (currently around $81,081) and has failed to sustainably reclaim this level since November 2025. Historically, Bitcoin initiated multi-month bull markets after breaking above this long-term trend line in May 2020 and March 2023. Therefore, whether Bitcoin can now hold above $81,000 is seen as a key signal for a potential shift in medium-term market sentiment.

However, the range between $60,000 and $63,000 also concentrates over 6% of the supply, and this area successfully transformed into strong support for most of 2026.

The institution believes that Bitcoin is currently at a critical juncture in the battle between bulls and bears. If bulls can successfully break through the "triple resistance zone" of $80,000 to $82,000 with fresh buying pressure and sustain trading above the 50-week moving average, it could unlock potential for further upside, mirroring historical bull market patterns following breakthroughs of long-term moving averages. Conversely, if multiple attempts to rally fail, it may trigger panic selling among short-term holders, causing the price to retreat toward support levels around $75,000 or lower to find equilibrium.

CryptoQuant Research:

September has long been one of the weakest months for U.S. stocks, with the S&P 500 averaging a return of approximately -0.8% over the past 50 years. Bitcoin recorded negative returns in September for six consecutive years from 2017 to 2022, but has posted gains in September for the past three years—2023, 2024, and 2025—indicating that this seasonal pattern is weakening.

In 2026,叠加美国中期选举不确定性，可能推高波动性并促使投资者降低风险敞口。核心问题在于季节性调整是否会演变为广泛的风险规避，需关注 ETF 资金流及现货 BTC 需求。若避险情绪蔓延至全市场，比特币将承压；反之若 ETF 和现货需求保持强劲，传统 9 月模式可能再度被打破。

K33 Research:

BTC has reclaimed the 50-day, 100-day, 200-day, and 200-week moving averages within four days. K33 considers January and October 2023 as the closest historical analogs, noting that record short squeezes, renewed trading activity, and rotations into scarce assets resemble the early stages of past cyclical bull markets.

CoinShares:

The low point of this cycle may have already occurred, and the market is more likely to remain range-bound over the next two to three months. BTC may approach $80,000, but it will be difficult to sustainably trade above this level; a more sustained move toward $100,000 would require weaker employment data that significantly lowers market expectations for interest rates.

Bitwise Europe:

The bottom formation of Bitcoin has entered a later stage; sustained trading above the $69,000 short-term holder cost line will improve local market structure. A breakout and sustained hold above the $76,000 real market average, accompanied by improving capital flows and market participation, will confirm the return of macro risk appetite and signal the end of the bear market.

Traders: "Set 10 Major Goals First":

I've already reclaimed two-thirds of my position in the $78,000–$79,800 range. It’s unlikely we’ll see a meaningful pullback before $100,000. We’ll reach $100,000 very soon.

Founder and CIO of MN Capital: Michaël van de Poppe:

The uptrend may last longer than expected, and we could see Bitcoin pushed to at least $82,700, potentially reaching $90,000. Bitcoin is currently in a solid consolidation range. While markets are always fluid, given the current upward momentum, another test of the highs appears inevitable. Any price below $74,000 presents an excellent entry opportunity.