Bitcoin (BTC) simulations from on-chain analyst Willy Woo show the median path reaching $1.03 million in February 2033. The same path first falls 43% from its 2028 cycle high.
Woo stresses the model is not a prediction, but calls $241,000 to $413,000 a reasonable 2028 top. The 29th percentile path he highlights never reaches $1 million. Holders targeting that level wait more than six years in the median case.
What Do the Bitcoin Simulations Assume About Diminishing Returns?
Woo built a Monte Carlo simulation, a method that runs thousands of random trials to map possible outcomes. The model trained on prices from the 2018 market bottom to the 2022 bottom.
Woo dropped older data, when 100x gains came easily. He argued that derivatives, exchange-traded funds (ETFs), and fast liquidations better describe today’s market.
A power-law decay setting of 0.45, shrinks returns with each cycle. Additionally, the model tracks where Bitcoin sits inside its market cycle.
How Far Apart Are the Bull and Bear Paths by 2030?
The median path reaches a cycle high of $413,000 in December 2028, then sinks to $234,000 by April 2030. The 29th percentile path sits above 29% of simulations. It tops out at $241,000 in December 2028 and bottoms at $126,000 in April 2030.
Historically, Bitcoin’s next bottom has bounced off the prior top, and Woo singled out that path because it matches.
At the extremes, however, the 90th percentile path reaches $1.44 million in March 2029. The 10th percentile falls to $51,900 by April 2030.
All four highlighted paths post cycle highs between December 2028 and March 2029. Meanwhile, a separate 500-day halving rule places the sell window in 2029.
The model assumes future returns resemble the 2018 to 2022 record. Therefore, a change in market structure would break it. Likewise, cycle tools face a similar test, as Bitcoin traded beneath every band of the famous rainbow chart in June.
If power-law decay holds, each cycle yields smaller multiples, and seven-figure targets move later on the calendar.
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