Bitcoin Exhibits "Magnified Gold" Characteristics Amid Macroeconomic Uncertainty; Four-Year Cycle Theory Alerts to Downside Risk

Huo Xing Finance reports that on September 5, Bitcoin recently reasserted characteristics similar to a safe-haven asset, rising to a four-month high of $82,262 this week before retreating to around $79,800. André Dragosch, Head of Research for Bitwise Europe, stated that amid rising macroeconomic uncertainty and increased risks of currency depreciation, investors are increasingly viewing Bitcoin not as a high-risk tech asset, but as a store of value. Dragosch noted that Bitcoin’s 90-day price correlation with gold has reached its highest level in six years. He believes that as macroeconomic pressures intensify and currency depreciation risks rise, the distinction between Bitcoin and gold is diminishing, with Bitcoin increasingly behaving like “gold on steroids.” However, the four-year cycle theory continues to exert downward pressure on future price prospects. This theory posits a strong correlation between Bitcoin’s bull and bear cycles and its halving events; Fidelity suggests that if historical cycle patterns persist, the next bear market low may occur around November 2026. Previously, Galaxy Research Director Alex Thorn estimated that the base-case bottom for this correction could lie between $40,000 and $46,000. Chris Kuiper, Vice President of Research at Fidelity Digital Assets, argues that the four-year cycle is not a precise temporal rule and does not imply Bitcoin will necessarily decline later this year; historically, a long-term perspective and holding period have proven more advantageous for investors.