Bitcoin miners face a projected 5.68% difficulty increase around Oct. 16 that could leave some equipment earning less than electricity costs. Expected revenue per unit of computing power would fall 5.37% if Bitcoin's price, block subsidy and average fees per block remain unchanged. Startmining's network dashboard, captured at 07:02 UTC on Oct. 14, showed difficulty at 132.72 trillion and hashprice at $39.77 per PH/day. Hashprice measures expected daily revenue from one petahash per second of computing power before expenses.
The dashboard showed 347 blocks remaining until the adjustment at block 971,712. Bitcoin recalibrates difficulty every 2,016 blocks to target a ten-minute average block interval. Oct. 16 remains an estimated adjustment date. The projected difficulty increase can change as more blocks arrive.
Higher difficulty reduces the chance that a given amount of computing work earns a block reward. The projected increase would reduce hashprice from $39.77 to about $37.63 per PH/day if Bitcoin's price, subsidy and average fees per block remain unchanged. The calculation divides $39.77 by 1.0568. Revenue scales inversely with difficulty, producing a 5.37% revenue reduction rather than a 5.68% drop. Actual hashprice will also reflect Bitcoin's price and fee revenue.
Illustrative equipment consuming 20 joules per terahash draws 20 kilowatts per PH/s, or 480 kilowatt-hours over a full day. Electricity for that equipment costs $38.40 daily per PH/s at 8 cents per kilowatt-hour. The equipment's $1.37 daily electricity cushion at the Oct. 14 hashprice becomes an approximately $0.77 daily power shortfall under the projected adjustment, with other inputs unchanged. Dividing revenue by electricity consumption gives the highest electricity tariff covered by gross revenue alone. Luxor's energy-adjusted hashprice method puts that electricity-only ceiling at 8.29 cents per kilowatt-hour before the projected adjustment and 7.84 cents afterward. Lower joules per terahash means less electricity consumption for the same computing output.
The calculations assume continuous operation and unchanged Bitcoin price, subsidy and average fees per block. The electricity-only ceilings exclude pool fees, separate cooling and site loads, repairs, overhead and financing. Equipment consuming 25 joules per terahash at 6.5 cents per kilowatt-hour would also move below electricity break-even under the scenario. Equipment consuming 30 joules per terahash at 5.5 cents per kilowatt-hour would cross the same threshold. Equipment consuming 15 joules per terahash at 8 cents per kilowatt-hour would retain an electricity cushion.
Hashrate Index hashprice briefly exceeded $40 before easing to around $39, according to reporting on Oct. 9. Luxor's Oct. 13 analysis put Bitcoin hashprice at $39.71, close to $40 ahead of the next adjustment. The completed adjustment at block 971,712 and subsequent hashprice will provide the next test. A higher dollar value of rewards per block could soften the pressure on miners. A lower dollar value would deepen the pressure.
Bitcoin's Upcoming Difficulty Adjustment May Reduce Miner Profits
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Summary
Bitcoin analysis suggests miners could see lower profits after a 5.68% difficulty increase expected around October 16. The hashprice is projected to drop from $39.77 to $37.63 per PH/day if Bitcoin news conditions remain stable. Equipment using 20 joules per terahash at 8 cents per kilowatt-hour would shift from a $1.37 daily cushion to a $0.77 deficit. The adjustment will occur at block 971,712, with 347 blocks remaining. Calculations assume steady Bitcoin price, block subsidy, and fees.
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