Bitcoin's Supply in Profit (%), the share of bitcoin worth more than its acquisition price, has climbed to 57.5% as of July 22, up from 46.2% on June 30, the 2026 low.
The recovery is real:
- In about three weeks, more than one in ten bitcoins swung from loss back into profit, with BTC up 7% in 30 days to around $65,100.
- Short-Term Holder SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio; 1.0 means coins move at break-even) sits at 0.9997: the coins recent buyers are moving get spent at break-even.
History sets a higher bar. Using one regime marker, the 30-day average of Long-Term Holder SOPR (calculated from CryptoQuant's daily data) durably reclaiming 1.0, the last four bear markets ended in:
- April 2012: Supply in Profit at 69%
- November 2015: 64%
- May 2019: 83%
- April 2023: 77%
Every real exit came with a profit cushion of roughly 64% or more.
- This cycle already produced one failed attempt: from April 28 to June 1 the LTH-SOPR average held above 1.0 for 35 days, Supply in Profit reached 67%, and both rolled back over.
- Today that average sits at 0.86, below 1.0 for 51 straight days.
Who is selling: the caveat.
- Coins older than six months spiked to 12-16% of exchange inflows in early July, right as the bounce began, then faded to 0.8% this past week versus 5.6% the month before.
- Old hands fed exchanges on the first leg; that flow has dried up.
- The overhang sits in the middle: cohorts that bought between one month and two years ago, with cost basis (their average acquisition price) between roughly $72K and $101K, remain underwater.
Until Supply in Profit clears the mid-60s and a reclaim outlasts April's 35 days, probabilities favor a recovery inside a bear regime, not a confirmed exit.
