Crypto analyst Ali Martinez said that the sharp decline in Bitcoin’s Sharpe ratio, a risk-return indicator, could signal a favorable period for long-term buying in the spot market.
According to data shared by Martinez, Bitcoin’s Sharpe ratio has fallen to minus 23. The Sharpe ratio, which measures the return an investment provides in relation to the risk or volatility undertaken, indicates strong returns relative to risk when it is positive, while negative values point to periods where investors face significant losses.
The analyst noted that a reading of -23 doesn’t necessarily mean the decline in Bitcoin will continue indefinitely; rather, it suggests that sellers may have largely exhausted their options. According to Martinez, this creates an asymmetrical entry opportunity for long-term Bitcoin investors, where the risk is more limited compared to the potential gain.
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Martinez stated that past data also revealed a similar picture, recalling that the Sharpe ratio had fallen to similar levels during the lows of the 2015, 2019, and 2022 bear markets. He noted that these periods coincided with the final capitulation and intense selling phases in the market.
On the other hand, according to on-chain data, Bitcoin has formed a strong support zone between $63,111 and $61,840. URPD data shows that more than 1.3 million BTC changed hands within this price range.
Martinez noted that as long as this support zone is maintained, Bitcoin does not face a significant supply wall up to $84,569. Approximately 582,000 BTC have traded at this level previously. Therefore, the analyst added, maintaining the region between $61,840 and $63,111 is critical for Bitcoin’s medium-term outlook.
*This is not investment advice.
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