Foreign media report that, after a rapid surge in August, Bitcoin now appears to be in a consolidation phase rather than entering a "Bart Simpson" style crash. The article suggests that while there are signs of short-term weakening, a sharp decline of this nature would require clearer breakouts and triggered cascading liquidations.
After a sharp rise in August, it entered a sideways consolidation phase.
Bitcoin rose from approximately $64,400 to nearly $80,700 between August 19 and 25, an increase of nearly 25%. Since then, the price has fluctuated around $77,500 with some downward movement.
The so-called "Bart Simpson" pattern typically refers to a price movement that rapidly surges upward, then consolidates in a narrow range at the high, before quickly dropping back down into the initial rally zone. This term has long been popular in the crypto trading community.
The momentum on the 4-hour chart is slowing down.
The article notes that, on the 4-hour chart, the trend strength indicator ADX is approximately 22, below the common 25 threshold used by many traders. This suggests that the current movement resembles stagnation rather than a strong downward trend.
Indicators related to volatility compression suggest the market may be awaiting a larger directional move, with short-term signals leaning bearish. However, the 50-period exponential moving average remains above the 200-period moving average, indicating the overall structure has not yet fully turned bearish.
$75,800 is a key level
The article argues that for this sharp decline pattern to be valid, Bitcoin needs to rapidly retrace most of its gains, similar to how it rose, rather than gradually declining over several weeks.
According to this criterion, if the price returns to the area where it began rising in August, it could imply a near-term reapproach to around $64,000, representing a single decline of approximately 17%. To open this path, the price must first break below $75,800.
A true flash crash typically requires a strong catalyst, such as a series of consecutive liquidations of highly leveraged positions, triggering a chain reaction of liquidations. The article notes that similar mechanisms have occurred in the Bitcoin market in the past, but short-term indicators this week have not yet shown that such pressure has materialized.
Weakness in September amid rising interest rate hike expectations
Market discussions have intensified, partly due to September's historical weakness. The article notes that since 2013, Bitcoin has closed lower in 8 out of the past 13 Septembers, with an average decline of approximately 2.97%.
Meanwhile, the CME FedWatch tool indicated that the market was pricing in a roughly 64% probability of a Fed rate hike at its September 15–16 meeting. The article also noted that spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced a single-day net outflow of approximately $236 million, while rising oil prices further elevated inflationary pressures.
However, the article emphasizes that these factors do not automatically equate to a flash crash. A more realistic downside scenario could be a gradual decline along a downward trend line over the coming weeks, with a potential drop to the $62,000 area within approximately eight weeks, rather than a sharp plunge within hours.