Odaily Planet Daily reports: The Bitcoin "Realized Cap Impulse" has recently ended a 93-day streak of negative values and turned positive for the first time, signaling a reversal after the longest capital contraction cycle since the 2022 bear market.
This metric measures whether token flows with real economic significance are driving an expansion of the capital base, by tracking the momentum of realized capital (Realized Cap) alongside Bitcoin supply and price factors. A positive reading does not simply reflect rising prices, but indicates a shift in the flow dynamics within the Bitcoin network.
Data shows that this indicator crossed above zero on August 20, when BTC price was around $73,000, and has remained positive for eight consecutive days. BTC price has since risen to approximately $78,900, an increase of about 8%. As of the latest reading, the indicator stands at 0.198, below its peak of 0.226 reached on August 26.
Historical data shows that similar bear market bottom signals have been followed by significant Bitcoin rallies: after the indicator turned positive in September 2015, Bitcoin rose approximately 160% over the following year; after March 2019, it increased by about 173% within 90 days; and after January 2023, it rose approximately 45% within 90 days and 104% over the year.
However, the realized market cap momentum indicator is not an absolute signal of a cycle bottom. Similar positive crossovers occurred in early 2018 and early 2022, yet the market did not immediately enter a sustained upward phase afterward. Analysis suggests that the indicator maintaining a sustained positive reading, confirmed by price action, is more meaningful than a single-day breakout above the zero line.