Foreign media report that Bernstein Investment Bank’s latest report sets Bitcoin’s medium- to long-term price targets at $150,000 by mid-2027 and $300,000 by 2029, citing sovereign debt pressures and institutional capital inflows. However, Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole Investments, believes one prerequisite for this trajectory is Bitcoin successfully completing a quantum-resistant security upgrade in a timely manner.
Quantum risk depresses long-term valuations
Edwards stated that the market has already priced in these types of risks. He estimated that concerns surrounding the threat of quantum computing may be imposing a roughly 30% risk discount on Bitcoin’s current price.
The article notes that institutional funds are particularly sensitive to protocol security. Previous analyses suggested that approximately 20% to 30% of existing Bitcoin may be directly exposed to risks associated with Shor's algorithm, especially early addresses and wallets with publicly exposed public keys.
Community discusses two upgrade proposals
Regarding this issue, Bitcoin Core developers are currently discussing BIP-360 and BIP-361. The former proposes introducing post-quantum addresses based on ML-DSA, while the latter suggests freezing bitcoins still using the vulnerable old format five years after the upgrade.
Meanwhile, Galaxy Digital has allocated $5 million through its Bitcoin Quantum Readiness program to advance related preparations. The article also notes that the Ethereum Foundation has recently adjusted its Layer 1 protection roadmap, with a target upgrade timeline of 2029.
On-chain models project $134,000 to $180,000
Compared to Bernstein’s optimistic forecasts for the coming years, Glassnode’s on-chain data provides a valuation range more aligned with the current cycle. Using the MVRV pricing band, Bitcoin’s fair peak for this cycle is estimated to be between $134,000 and $180,000.
The article states that, to initiate this upward move, the market first needs to break through the resistance level near $70,920. This area has accumulated a significant amount of existing position costs and is typically where selling pressure is strongest.