Derived from 528btc, the Federal Reserve is set to announce its December interest rate decision on December 11, with Chair Jerome Powell to follow with a press conference. The CME FedWatch tool shows an 86.2% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut. After a nearly 20% drop in November, Bitcoin is looking for policy signals to reverse its decline. Although the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF saw a $220 million inflow in late November, it could not offset the $4.3 billion net outflow for the month, with BlackRock’s IBIT fund alone losing $1.6 billion between late October and mid-November. The fragile macroeconomic environment, with tight liquidity and leveraged positions, makes the market highly sensitive to any Fed policy adjustments. Key concerns include whether the Fed will cut rates in December, how it balances inflation and growth, and whether easing will continue into 2026. NYDIG research shows that Bitcoin is influenced by real yields and ETF flows. Powell’s statement could lead to three scenarios: a dovish signal may support Bitcoin’s rebound, a neutral stance may result in consolidation, and a hawkish tone could trigger renewed selling pressure.
Bitcoin's Outlook Amid Fed's December Rate Decision
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