ChainThink reports that on August 26, Bitcoin’s next move may depend on three key events this week: the U.S. July PCE inflation data, NVIDIA’s second-quarter earnings report, and Federal Reserve Chair Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium.
Bitcoin previously rose from around $63,000 to above $80,000, but has now pulled back below $79,000, with the 14-day RSI exceeding 70, indicating a short-term overbought condition.
The market expects the U.S. July core PCE to rise 3.2% year-over-year and 0.18% month-over-month, compared to 3.3% and 0.13% in June. If the data exceeds expectations, it could reignite concerns about Fed rate hikes and put pressure on the crypto market.
CME FedWatch indicates that the bond market currently estimates a 38% probability of the Fed raising rates by 25 basis points in September. NVIDIA will release its second-quarter earnings after the market close on Wednesday.
If performance significantly exceeds expectations, it could alleviate market concerns about AI capital expenditures relying on debt financing and support risk assets. Since the beginning of 2025, the 90-day rolling correlation coefficient between Bitcoin and NVIDIA's stock price has mostly remained above 0.5.
Traders will also watch Wash’s speech on Friday. The U.S. Treasury’s recent plan to increase long-term Treasury buybacks to curb rising yields has been viewed as one of the catalysts behind Bitcoin’s recent rally.
The market will watch whether Wash adjusts his previous stance favoring market-driven pricing and expresses support for the Treasury’s actions.