Foreign media report that after Bitcoin broke below its multi-month uptrend channel, market focus has shifted from upward targets to downward support. Previously, BTC briefly fell below $60,000, then rebounded to around $63,800 due to short covering, but analysts generally believe this correction is not yet fully complete.
The 200-week moving average is being closely watched.
The report mentions that one of the most closely watched technical levels right now is the weekly 200-week moving average near $59,100. Historically, Bitcoin has repeatedly found support near this level during deep pullbacks and bear markets.
If the price continues to hold at this level, it indicates that long-term buying interest remains present. If it consistently breaks below, the market may decline further toward lower support levels.
ETF outflows and large holder sell-offs are putting pressure on prices.
Short-term pressure primarily stems from funding conditions. Market data cited in the article shows that Bitcoin spot ETFs experienced significant net outflows in May, with large investors collectively selling approximately 24,602 BTC, and trading volume structure favoring sellers.
These signals have caused some traders to remain cautious about the sustainability of the rebound. The report suggests that, until selling pressure shows clear relief, the market will likely continue to test the demand zones below.
The market is closely watching $50,000 to $55,000.
Analyst Ash Crypto believes the current pullback structure resembles that of the 2022 bear market. The report also notes that during the 2022 cycle, Bitcoin experienced a maximum drawdown of approximately 78% from its peak, while this cycle has seen a decline of about 53% from its cycle high.
On-chain data shows that Bitcoin's realized price is approximately $53,600. Based on historical ranges, some analysts believe lower prices cannot be ruled out; the market is currently focusing on $55,000, $50,000, and the potential support zone between $44,000 and $52,000.