Bitcoin's historical drawdowns have narrowed, and growth from lows has slowed.

ME News reports that on September 5 (UTC+8), the Bitcoin market has repeatedly seen the narrative of “this time is different” over the past 18 years, yet the overall structure of each cycle has remained largely consistent. In 2014, 2017, 2020–2021, and 2024–2025, BTC’s maximum drawdowns were approximately 85%, 84%, 77%, and 53%, respectively, with drawdown magnitudes gradually narrowing. Alex Thorn, Head of Research at Galaxy Digital, released a chart showing that this cycle’s BTC drawdown is significantly smaller than in previous cycles. Analyst Willy Woo noted that as the supply shock from halving weakens, Bitcoin may be transitioning from a four-year cycle to a six- to eight-year cycle, though this assessment remains unverified. In prior cycles, the rally from the low to the next all-time high was approximately 580x, 130x, 22x, and 8x, respectively. Analyst James Check observed that Bitcoin’s price floor has risen with each cycle, while the peak has remained relatively stable; Jesse Myers suggested that BTC may have just entered a two- to three-year bull market. (Source: ODAILY)