Bitcoin's daily chart is showing a bearish signal from the Guppy Multiple Moving Average (GMMA). Bitcoin's price is below both groups of moving averages, while the short-term group has crossed beneath the long-term group. Daryl Guppy, the trader who developed the indicator, describes that configuration as a warning that momentum is becoming bearish.
Market participants widely use the GMMA to assess short-term and long-term trends. The indicator combines two groups of moving averages, each measuring average prices over specified numbers of days. One group covers shorter periods, while the other covers longer periods. The short-term group reflects trader sentiment, and the long-term group reflects investor sentiment. A downward crossover by the short-term group indicates that traders are selling.
A crossover alone does not establish the signal because trader sentiment can reverse rapidly. Confirmation depends on the long-term group moving in the same direction as the short-term group. Bitcoin's long-term averages are converging and starting to turn downward. That movement indicates that investors are reaching agreement on price and buying less aggressively. The alignment between traders and investors strengthens the bearish signal.
The GMMA is not completely dependable as a standalone indicator. A comparable configuration in late May preceded a steep fall below $60,000 during June's first week. A late-January crossover preceded a decline from roughly $90,000 to around $62,000. However, bearish signals in August and September 2025 failed despite confirmation, as prices soon rebounded.
The latest bearish configuration coincides with sharp ETF outflows and additional indications that US demand is weakening. Options markets also show demand for protection against price declines. Those developments suggest traders are selling quickly or positioning for larger losses. However, seasonal patterns are favorable, and historical data indicate that bitcoin generally rises after midterm elections. The coming few days should indicate whether the bearish signals or the favorable seasonal pattern prevails.
Bitcoin's GMMA Signals Bearish Momentum Amid ETF Outflows
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Summary
Bitcoin's bearish trend is highlighted as the Guppy Multiple Moving Average (GMMA) shows weakening momentum. The price sits below both short-term and long-term averages, with ETF outflows adding pressure. Short-term averages have crossed below long-term ones, a pattern often linked to price declines. ETF outflows and reduced US demand are reinforcing the bearish trend, though seasonal factors could still trigger a rebound.
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