Bitcoin's 90-Day Correlation With Gold Rises Above 50%

Bitcoin is showing a stronger relationship with gold and a weaker link to technology stocks, according to research from Grayscale published on Aug. 27. The shift comes as growing concerns over U.S. debt and fiscal deficits revive investor interest in the so-called “debasement trade.”

Zach Pandl, Grayscale’s head of research, said Bitcoin’s 90-day correlation with gold has risen above 50%, compared with just above zero at the start of 2026.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s correlation with the Nasdaq 100 has dropped from above 60% to around 33%. According to Pandl, this divergence could indicate that investors are increasingly viewing Bitcoin as a scarce monetary asset rather than simply another high-risk technology investment.

The latest figures reflect recent price movements rather than a permanent change in Bitcoin’s market behavior. Grayscale did not establish a direct causal link between rising U.S. debt and Bitcoin’s stronger correlation with gold, nor did it suggest that the relationship will necessarily persist.

A correlation of 100% means two assets move perfectly together, while zero indicates no consistent relationship. A reading above 50% therefore points to a moderate positive relationship over the period measured.

Bitcoin’s higher correlation with gold means the two assets have recently moved in the same direction more frequently. It does not mean they have delivered identical returns or experienced similar levels of volatility and drawdowns.

Gold also retains a much longer track record as a reserve asset and monetary hedge. Central banks hold gold directly, while its price generally fluctuates less than Bitcoin. The cryptocurrency remains more exposed to leverage, exchange activity, regulatory developments and shifts in investor risk appetite.

The 90-day measurement is also important because correlation can vary significantly depending on the timeframe. A 30-day, one-year or full-cycle calculation could produce very different results, particularly following major market movements.

Pandl described the recent change as a potential “regime shift,” although longer-term evidence would be needed to confirm a structural change.

For much of the previous year, Bitcoin traded more closely alongside high-growth technology stocks during the artificial intelligence-led market rally. Expectations for lower interest rates and abundant liquidity benefited both cryptocurrencies and the Nasdaq 100.

That relationship has since weakened. Grayscale’s data shows Bitcoin’s 90-day correlation with the Nasdaq 100 falling from more than 60% to roughly 33%.

The change coincided with increased volatility in bond markets and renewed investor focus on the long-term cost of U.S. borrowing.

Bitcoin also experienced a sharp rebound during the period, climbing from $62,679 on Aug. 17 to around $79,500 on Aug. 21, a gain of approximately 27% in five days.

The “debasement trade” refers to demand for assets viewed as capable of preserving value when concerns grow over the purchasing power of fiat currencies.

Gold has traditionally occupied this role. Bitcoin is increasingly being presented as a digital alternative because its supply is capped at 21 million coins and its issuance schedule is publicly defined.

However, Bitcoin's fixed supply does not eliminate its market risks. Its price remains highly volatile and can be significantly affected by liquidity conditions, leverage and investor sentiment.

The backdrop has also become more significant. U.S. gross federal debt surpassed $40 trillion on Aug. 18, reaching roughly $40.05 trillion, according to Treasury data, before rising to about $40.10 trillion by Aug. 25.

The Congressional Budget Office expects the federal deficit to reach $1.9 trillion in fiscal 2026. Under current law, annual deficits are projected to remain elevated as interest expenses, mandatory spending and borrowing needs increase.

Grayscale argues that persistent fiscal deficits and higher long-term borrowing costs could encourage investors to seek scarce assets outside the traditional government-backed monetary system.

However, this remains an investment thesis rather than evidence of a direct relationship between rising debt and Bitcoin prices. Bitcoin is influenced by multiple factors, including liquidity, monetary policy, institutional demand and broader risk appetite.

BlackRock has presented a similar long-term argument, suggesting that rising U.S. debt could strengthen Bitcoin’s investment case while acknowledging that its performance depends on a broader set of market conditions.

The growing correlation between Bitcoin and gold is notable because it challenges the narrative that the cryptocurrency should primarily be viewed as a technology-related risk asset. If the relationship with gold remains elevated while its correlation with technology stocks continues to decline, Bitcoin could increasingly be treated as part of the broader market for scarce and alternative monetary assets.

For now, however, it is too early to call this a permanent transformation. Correlations are highly sensitive to market conditions, and Bitcoin has repeatedly shifted between behaving like a risk asset and acting as a hedge against monetary and fiscal concerns.

The more important question is whether the current pattern survives different market environments. If Bitcoin continues to track gold during periods of fiscal stress while becoming less dependent on technology stocks and liquidity-driven rallies, that would provide stronger evidence of a genuine change in its market identity. In that scenario, Bitcoin’s investment narrative could gradually move beyond “digital technology” toward that of a globally traded scarce monetary asset.