Bitcoin's 60% market share continues to suppress top altcoins, with the OTHERS/BTC ratio in a four-year downtrend. ETF inflows and regulatory pressures have solidified Bitcoin’s dominance. Analyst Ted Pillows notes a breakout above key resistance could trigger a multi-year AltSeason, with DeFi TVL and top altcoins seeing renewed momentum.
OTHERS/BTC ratio in 4-year downtrend confirms Bitcoin’s prolonged dominance over altcoins.
BTC commands ~60% market share as ETF inflows and regulations suppress altcoin rallies.
Trendline breakout above key resistance could ignite multi-year AltSeason with DeFi TVL rebound.
The ever-volatile world of cryptocurrency, Bitcoin continues to assert its supremacy, leaving altcoins in a prolonged downtrend. A recent chart shared by crypto analyst Ted Pillows on X highlights this stark reality: the OTHERS/BTC ratio, representing the market cap of all cryptocurrencies excluding Bitcoin relative to BTC, has been sliding for over four years. This monthly chart from TradingView paints a picture of diminishing altcoin influence, with a clear descending trendline capping any meaningful recoveries.
Failed AltSeason Calls Persist
The data tells a compelling story. Peaking during the 2017-2018 bull run when altcoins like Ethereum and Ripple captured imaginations with explosive gains, the ratio has since eroded. Small pumps in 2021 and beyond sparked premature calls for “AltSeason” – that mythical period where alts outpace Bitcoin by orders of magnitude.
Alts have been in a downtrend against BTC for 4 years now.
Every small pump and the people have called for a 100x AltSeason.
If you truly want AltSeason, watch out for a breakout here.
Yet, each rally fizzled, reinforcing BTC’s dominance, which now hovers around 60% of the total crypto market cap as of early 2026. Factors like regulatory scrutiny on DeFi projects, Ethereum’s scaling challenges, and Bitcoin’s ETF-driven institutional inflows have all contributed to this shift. Investors chasing 100x returns in meme coins or layer-2 tokens have often been left holding bags as BTC grinds higher.
Breakout Hope for Altcoins
But hope isn’t lost for altcoin enthusiasts. Pillows points to a potential breakout above the trendline as the key signal. If breached, it could ignite a multi-year uptrend, reminiscent of past cycles where alts surged on innovation waves like NFTs or Web3 gaming. Current on-chain metrics show rising stablecoin inflows and DeFi TVL stabilization, hinting at underlying strength.
However, macroeconomic headwinds – including potential Fed rate hikes amid inflation concerns – could delay this pivot. Traders should monitor volume spikes and RSI divergences on alt/BTC pairs for confirmation.
For now, diversification remains crucial. While Bitcoin’s store-of-value narrative dominates, undervalued alts in AI-blockchain hybrids or real-world asset tokenization could lead the charge if sentiment flips. As the market matures, expect fewer moonshots but more sustainable growth. Stay vigilant; the next AltSeason might just be a breakout away.
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