Article by: Forbes
Compiled by: AididiaoJP, Foresight News
In 2026, Bitcoin struggled to maintain its all-time high of over $126,000 reached last year. Despite repeated positive signals from U.S. President Trump, Bitcoin's price has declined by more than 50% since October of last year. However, several analysts suggest that a potential policy shift by the Federal Reserve may be brewing a turnaround.
Just as BlackRock’s CEO releases his latest 12-month Bitcoin price forecast, Bloomberg Intelligence senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas offers a highly insightful comparison: the flood of Bitcoin ETFs could cause Bitcoin’s price movement to mirror the “triumphs and tribulations” of gold over the past 20+ years.
Balchunas posted on X: "The 22-year history of gold ETFs may be the closest roadmap available for Bitcoin ETF investors." Since the launch of gold ETFs in 2004, the price of gold has surged dramatically, with its current market capitalization nearing $2.8 trillion. This figure alone is enough to spark market speculation—if Bitcoin can replicate even part of gold’s success path, its potential upside could be enormous.
He further analyzed: "Gold and Bitcoin are packaged non-yielding stores of value; they generate no cash flow, and their price movements are driven entirely by investor sentiment, rather than the profitability of traditional stocks, the coupon payments of bonds, or the creditworthiness of governments."
Over the past two decades, gold ETFs have experienced dramatic ups and downs: briefly becoming the world’s largest ETF in 2011, followed by an eight-year slump and a difficult recovery. Balchunas believes that bitcoin ETFs are now playing out a similar script—“stunning gains, painful drawdowns, and a recovery phase requiring immense patience.” Notably, each cycle for gold ETFs has raised the historical high, a pattern that is especially encouraging for long-term bitcoin holders.
Tracing the development of Bitcoin ETFs: At the beginning of 2024, after more than a decade of sustained advocacy from the crypto community, spot Bitcoin ETFs were finally approved and launched into the market. Wall Street institutions rushed in, and several leading funds quickly became among the fastest-growing ETFs in history. This not only marked Bitcoin’s transition from an边缘 asset to the mainstream financial system, but also laid the groundwork for subsequent price volatility.
However, volatility remains ever-present. At the beginning of this month, Bitfinex exchange analysts issued a warning that a "shock" large-scale outflow of ETF funds could directly disrupt the current rebound momentum. Bitcoin has already recovered nearly 10% from its low below $57,000 in early July, but the market remains highly vigilant.
As the undisputed leader in the Bitcoin ETF space, BlackRock's IBIT fund has sold nearly 100,000 Bitcoin over the past few months to meet redemption pressures, and still holds over 733,000 Bitcoin, with assets under management nearing $50 billion. This also reflects the flow characteristics of institutional capital—both inflows and outflows can trigger significant market reactions.
Despite this year's significant pullback in Bitcoin's price, many long-term bullish investors remain confident. They generally believe Bitcoin is poised for a long-term boom comparable to gold. Balchunas himself emphasized a “spiritual parallel” between the two: “Gold surged rapidly in its time, surpassing the world’s largest ETF, SPY, in market size on a single day in 2011, only to fall out of favor for years afterward. IBIT similarly reached a peak of $100 billion in assets in a single day—that was precisely the October 2025 high. Both have nearly fixed supplies, and when demand spikes suddenly, price explosions tend to follow. But the problem is that demand is often fickle, arriving in waves rather than steady, sustained flows.”
From the perspective of a seasoned observer in the crypto industry, this comparison holds significant practical relevance. Gold has achieved long-term value anchoring through its scarcity, safe-haven properties, and global recognition; Bitcoin, on the other hand, is demonstrating characteristics similar to “digital gold” through its halving mechanism, decentralized network, and growing institutional adoption. The emergence of ETFs has further lowered the barrier to entry, allowing traditional investors to gain exposure without holding Bitcoin directly—undoubtedly amplifying demand elasticity.
The market remains optimistic about the resilience of demand for ETFs. Simon-Peter Massabni, Head of Business Development at XS.com, noted: "Institutional demand remains one of the strongest pillars supporting Bitcoin. Spot Bitcoin ETFs continue to see steady inflows, while an increasing number of companies are incorporating digital assets into their portfolio diversification strategies. This institutional interest has effectively alleviated selling pressure during recent market corrections."
Looking ahead, Bitcoin’s price trajectory will be heavily influenced by macroeconomic conditions, regulatory developments, and institutional behavior. With gold’s market capitalization now exceeding $28 trillion, if Bitcoin gradually establishes itself as a similar “store of value”—even capturing just a fraction of gold’s market cap—it could unlock tremendous upside potential. Of course, the journey will inevitably involve significant volatility—that’s inherent to the crypto market’s “high risk, high reward” nature.
For retail investors, the key is to stay rational, diversify risk, and focus on long-term trends rather than short-term noise. The story of Bitcoin is far from over— as more traditional capital enters and infrastructure improves, this "price explosion" may have only just begun. From gold to Bitcoin: Could fixed supply + institutional frenzy trigger another "explosive" price movement?