Bitcoin climbed toward $87,000 after a surprisingly weak U.S. jobs report strengthened expectations that the Federal Reserve could pause rather than raise rates again later this month.
The U.S. economy added just 29,000 jobs in September, well below the roughly 84,000-90,000 economists had expected, while unemployment edged up to 4.2%. The Bureau of Labor Statistics also revised July and August payroll growth lower by a combined 60,000 jobs, adding to evidence that hiring has cooled more sharply than previously thought.
Bitcoin reacted quickly, trading as high as roughly $87,086 after the report before giving back part of the move. BTC is now around $85,300, but the macro backdrop has shifted in a direction that is more supportive for risk assets.
The jobs report matters because the Federal Reserve raised rates in September and traders had been debating whether another increase could follow at the Oct. 27–28 meeting.
That expectation has changed significantly.
Glassnode data shows futures markets cut the probability of an October hike from roughly 66% at the start of the week to 22% by Friday afternoon. The jobs report was not the only catalyst — softer inflation data and dovish Fed commentary also contributed — but it reinforced the case for a pause.
Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said both a hike and a pause remain “on the table,” indicating the decision is not settled.
The softer rate outlook follows another recent Bitcoin macro rally triggered by cooling inflation and lower expectations for additional tightening.
$87K Is Still the Level Bitcoin Needs to Break
The macro backdrop is improving, but Bitcoin still has a technical problem.
BTC has repeatedly struggled around $87,000–$87,500, making that zone the most important short-term resistance. The latest BTC breakout setup identified the same area as the level bulls need to clear before $90,000 becomes the next obvious target.
Institutional demand is also providing support. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted roughly $6.34 billion in Q3, including $2.65 billion during September, while BTC gained nearly 43% during the quarter. The strong ETF inflow recovery gives the rally an additional source of demand.