Bitcoin rose to nearly a four-month high this week before giving up some of those gains. Market participants believe this rebound is linked to capital shifting away from volatile bond markets and re-recognizing Bitcoin as a store of value. However, discussions around the four-year cycle have reignited, with some institutions cautioning that further declines this year cannot be ruled out.
Broke above the trading range once
Since early June, Bitcoin has mostly traded between $60,000 and $70,000, a range that initially disappointed investors hoping for a continuation of the upward trend. Only at the end of last month did the price begin to break out of this range.
On Thursday, Bitcoin rose as high as $82,262, reaching a four-month high, before trimming gains. By Friday afternoon, the price had declined to around $79,800, falling about 2% on the day, but remained at elevated levels since May.
Enhanced linkage with gold
André Dragosch, Bitwise’s Head of European Research, stated in the latest client report that the recent price rise indicates a shift in how investors are pricing Bitcoin—moving away from viewing it as a high-risk tech asset and toward seeing it as a store of value.
This assessment is set against the backdrop of rising yields on U.S. long-term Treasuries, which have triggered market volatility. Recently, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent disclosed that the Treasury plans to increase its efforts to repurchase long-term Treasuries. Previously, the yield on 30-year U.S. Treasuries rose to near a two-decade high at the end of last month, while tensions in Iran have also elevated inflation expectations.
Dragosch said that, against this backdrop, the 90-day correlation between Bitcoin and gold has approached its highest level in six years, indicating that the recent price movements of the two assets have become more aligned.
The four-year cycle remains a point of divergence.
Meanwhile, some traders believe this rally may not last long. The market is once again focusing on Bitcoin’s “four-year cycle” theory, which suggests that bear market lows and bull market highs tend to occur in four-year cycles.
Fidelity mentioned in its Q4 crypto market outlook that if this pattern holds, the next bear market low could occur around November 2026, approximately four years after the previous bear market low in November 2022.
This theory relates to Bitcoin’s halving mechanism, which reduces miners’ block rewards and has historically been used by markets as a reference for price fluctuations.
In a June report, Galaxy research head Alex Thorn wrote that, based on historical analogies, the baseline scenario for the low point of this correction may fall between $40,000 and $46,000, occurring sometime between now and the fourth quarter of 2026. However, he emphasized that this is not a price prediction.
Chris Kuiper, Vice President of Research at Fidelity Digital Assets, noted that the timing of the four-year cycle is not precise, so it does not necessarily mean Bitcoin will continue to decline later this year. According to him, historically, a more effective approach has been to observe such assets over longer holding periods.