Bitcoin fluctuated around $76,600 on August 23, after rising to $79,500 two days prior. The market is revisiting whether a bearish outlook from earlier this year was incorrect; however, the actual price movement showed that during this year’s pullback, the price did indeed enter the $58,000 to $62,000 range before recovering.
The year-end target has been reached.
In January, when Bitcoin was around $92,400, veteran trader Peter Brandt predicted that the price could drop to between $58,000 and $62,000. Although his timeframe at the time was relatively short, this price range was later actually reached during the 2026 pullback.
On July 1, Bitcoin briefly dropped to around $57,700, with some data points recorded near $58,300. Following this, the price remained near the target range for a period before gradually rebounding. Therefore, the current recovery above $76,000 does not directly indicate that the previous downside target has been fully invalidated.
Shift to long position after a change in technical pattern
As the price action evolved, Brandt adjusted his previously bearish outlook. He noted that Bitcoin’s long-standing inverse head-and-shoulders pattern changed the market structure after breaking the neckline, prompting him to buy following the breakout.
This means that the earlier downward assessment and the subsequent reversal are not the same thing. The former relates to the price target during the pullback phase, while the latter is based on confirmation of a new technical pattern. The article notes that Brandt has not recently provided a clear upward target, only mentioning several price zones that could act as support or resistance.
ETF inflows and short covering jointly drove the rebound.
From August 17 to August 21, Bitcoin rose from approximately $62,700 to $79,500, achieving a阶段性 gain of nearly 27%. The price subsequently retraced to around $76,600, but the cumulative gain over the 7-day period remained above 20%.
In the early stage of this rally, the forced liquidation of short leveraged positions was one of the key drivers. As the price broke through key levels, traders holding short positions were forced to buy back to cover, further amplifying the upward momentum.
Meanwhile, spot demand is also strengthening. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net inflows of approximately $606 million on August 20, following net inflows of about $517 million the previous day, bringing the total net inflow over five consecutive trading days to approximately $1.92 billion. Sustained ETF fund inflows provide more direct support to market sentiment compared to reliance solely on derivatives-driven short squeezes.
- Net inflow of approximately $606 million on August 20.
- The previous day's net inflow was approximately $517 million.
- Over the past five trading days, the net inflow amounted to approximately $1.92 billion.
U.S. Treasury operations have eased the macroeconomic environment.
The market rebound has also been accompanied by changes in the liquidity environment of the U.S. bond market. On August 19, the U.S. Treasury announced that it would at least double the single-limit for liquidity-supportive repurchase operations on long-term Treasuries.
As per the disclosure arrangement, the current limit of $2 billion per transaction will be increased to at least $4 billion starting September 9, covering U.S. Treasury bonds with maturities of 10 to 20 years and 20 to 30 years. Following the announcement, yields on U.S. long-term Treasuries declined, the dollar weakened, and scarce assets such as Bitcoin and gold rose in tandem.
Next, the market will focus on whether Bitcoin can reclaim and hold above $79,500. If this level cannot be sustained, the area below $70,000 may again become a key short-term observation point.