CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. today noted that although Bitcoin has rebounded to $64,600, two flow indicators have not confirmed new demand entering the market. The demand issuance ratio stands at -5.43 and the net coin-age flow at -85,500 BTC—both have recovered from July lows but remain in negative territory, with the former below zero for approximately five months and the latter for over seven months. His conclusion is that this rally is being supported by aging supply and accumulation behavior, not new capital; without fresh demand, the rally may gradually lose momentum.
(Prior context: USDT's total market cap has dropped by $4 billion over 60 days, nearing historic lows, leaving Bitcoin with liquidity issues)
(Background supplement: Bitcoin exchange inflows below 24% annual average! No selling pressure, and buying has dried up.)
Key Highlights
- Demand issuance ratio: -5.43, net coin-age flow: -85,500 BTC — both indicators remain in negative territory.
- Over the past 30 days, 85,500 BTC have been transferred to wallets held for over a year, equivalent to approximately 190 days of miner production.
- Analysts say the demand issuance ratio must reach 1 to be considered a true recovery, and we are still far from that level.
Bitcoin has rebounded to $64,000, but buying pressure hasn't followed. Today, CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. posted that two flow indicators show this rally lacks support from new capital.
The first metric is the demand issuance ratio, with a 30-day reading of -5.43. The second is net coin-age flow, with a 30-day total of -85,500 BTC. Both have shown a clear rebound from their July lows, when the demand issuance ratio briefly approached -16 and net coin-age flow dropped to nearly -220,000 BTC.
The rebounds were 66% and 61% respectively, which seems significant. However, the starting point was too low—despite covering 60% of the way, both are still below zero.
What are the two indicators saying?
First, let’s break down the terminology into plain language. The issuance demand ratio compares the amount of “young coins” (recently acquired coins) to the amount newly mined by miners. When this number is below zero, it means young coins are disappearing faster than new coins are being created—in other words, new buyers aren’t even enough to absorb the newly mined supply. This condition has been ongoing for about five months.
The net coin-age flow measures how many BTC moved from short-term holders to long-term holders (holding for over a year) over the past 30 days. A value of -85,500 means 85,500 bitcoins have been "put to sleep" this month, equivalent to approximately $5.5 billion at current prices. This indicator has remained negative for seven consecutive months, longer than the previous period.
What does 85,500 coins mean? Bitcoin currently produces about 450 new coins per day, so 85,500 coins equal the total mined by miners over 190 days—more than six months. All of these coins were transferred into wallets unlikely to move them within a month.
The rebound was supported by no sellers.
Axel Adler Jr. writes directly in the article that supply continues to age, with its liquid portion continuously shrinking; prices are rebounding amid ongoing aging and accumulation of supply, but without new capital inflow.
Without new demand entering, the current rebound may gradually lose momentum.
In other words, this rally isn’t driven by active buying, but by fewer sellers willing to part with their holdings. Coins are locked up, order books are thin, and the same buying volume can push prices higher. This type of price movement remains fragile until liquidity returns.
He also set two thresholds. A first sign of improvement is when both indicators return above zero; only when the demand-to-issue ratio remains consistently above 1 can a true recovery be confirmed, as this indicates that the expansion rate of younger coins has finally surpassed the rate of new issuance. At -5.43, there is still a long way to go.
For comparison, this is the second recent on-chain analysis pointing to the same conclusion. Yesterday, Julio Moreno, Research Director at CryptoQuant, noted that the total market cap of USDT had dropped by $4 billion within 60 days, approaching historical lows, and also concluded that Bitcoin is facing liquidity constraints. One metric examines stablecoin supply, while the other analyzes coin age flow—two independent indicators yielding the same result.
Lastly, Bitcoin is currently trading at approximately $64,887, up 1.48% over the past 7 days and 2.93% over the past 30 days, still 48.5% below its all-time high of $126,080. What counts as a "recovery" depends on where you start measuring from.
Frequently Asked Questions
What does the issuance ratio mean?
It compares the volume of young coins to the new issuance by miners. A value below zero indicates that the rate of young coin contraction exceeds new issuance, meaning new buying demand is insufficient to absorb the newly produced supply. Analysts note that this metric must remain consistently above 1 to confirm a genuine recovery in demand.
What does a negative net coin-age flow indicate?
Represents a large volume of Bitcoin transitioning from short-term to long-term holdings (over one year) over the past 30 days. This reading of -85,500 BTC, equivalent to approximately 190 days of miner output, indicates that the tradable supply in circulation continues to contract.
*This article is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. On-chain metrics reflect past fund flows and do not guarantee future performance. The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile; please carefully assess risks before investing.*
