Foreign media, citing BitGo Research, noted that Bitcoin faced two negative developments last week: the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points, and the U.S. Senate failed to advance the CLARITY Act to formal consideration. However, the market did not experience sustained declines, and BTC rebounded briefly before reclaiming $86,000.
After the rate hike, short-term stabilization occurs.
On September 16, the Federal Reserve raised the target range for the federal funds rate to 3.75% to 4.00%, marking its first rate hike since July 2023. BitGo Research believes the market had largely priced in this hike; the truly hawkish element came from the updated interest rate projections.
The Fed’s September economic projections show that the median forecast for the federal funds rate rose to 4.1% in both 2026 and 2027, up from 3.8% and 3.6% in June; the median forecast for 2028 also increased from 3.4% to 3.9%. Of the 18 participants, 16 expect rates to remain above the current range by the end of 2026, indicating a potential for further rate hikes this year.
Greg Cipolaro, Head of BitGo Research, believes the signals released by the dot plot have not been fully priced in by the market. Traditional markets reacted more noticeably to this statement. According to Reuters data, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.21% that day, the S&P 500 dropped 0.44%, short-term U.S. Treasury yields rose, and the dollar strengthened. In contrast, Bitcoin briefly approached $75,000 after the announcement, then returned to a range of approximately $76,000 to $76,700 within hours.
The CLARITY Bill failed to pass the procedural hurdle.
The U.S. Senate rejected the procedural motion to advance H.R. 3633, the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, by a vote of 49 in favor and 50 against, falling short of the 60 votes needed to proceed to formal consideration, one day before the Federal Reserve meeting.
The bill aims to establish a federal regulatory framework for digital assets and delineate the regulatory responsibilities of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Senator Thom Tillis voted against it to preserve procedural space for filing a motion to reconsider. As of September 23, no new vote has appeared in the Senate’s official record.
BitGo viewed the bill's setback and the interest rate hike as two consecutive negative catalysts within approximately 24 hours. Cipolaro believes that Bitcoin's lack of sustained selling pressure following these two negative catalysts in the same week is itself a noteworthy market signal. However, this still reflects institutional interpretation of price behavior and does not imply that subsequent regulatory or monetary policy risks have been fully priced in.
ETF fund inflows support the rebound
Following two key events, Bitcoin’s price continued to strengthen. According to CoinGecko data, BTC surpassed $85,000 on September 21 and traded at approximately $86,230 on September 23, marking a 13.3% gain over seven days, with price fluctuations ranging between $75,151 and $87,330.
Changes in funding conditions have been an important backdrop for the rebound. The U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a combined net outflow of approximately $746.3 million on September 15 and 16, followed by a shift to net inflows: on September 17, they attracted around $159.5 million, and the next day saw additional inflows of approximately $433 million. By September 21, daily net inflows further expanded to about $999 million, marking the largest single-day inflow since October 2025.
Nansen senior research analyst Nali Sondergaard said this rally appears to be driven by a return of ETF buying combined with passive short covering. However, he also cautioned that exchange flows still indicate some Bitcoin is flowing back onto exchanges, and if the upward momentum weakens, additional selling pressure could emerge.
This round of reaction is different from previous ones.
BitGo’s core assessment is not about how high Bitcoin’s absolute price is, but rather that its response to tightening policies is changing. Cipolaro believes that during previous rate hike cycles, Bitcoin behaved more like a high-volatility risk asset, often facing pressure alongside the stock market; this time, however, it has shown rapid recovery after short-term declines.
BitGo notes that the current market structure differs from the past. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have provided a compliant entry point for institutional and broker-dealer capital, while the amount of Bitcoin held by public companies continues to grow, and derivative market depth has simultaneously increased. These changes may reduce Bitcoin’s sensitivity to single macroeconomic headwinds, but they do not mean it has fully decoupled from interest rate and liquidity conditions.
Additional information: The Federal Reserve's meeting minutes will be released on October 7, and the next policy meeting is scheduled for October 27–28. Markets will continue to monitor whether further rate hikes are likely before the end of the year.