Bitcoin returned above $64,000 on June 12, indicating a recovery in market sentiment compared to earlier periods. Previously, Alex Thorn, Head of Research at Galaxy Digital, suggested that this correction may not yet be over, with the cycle low potentially not arriving until the fourth quarter of 2026. Recent price action and derivatives data are now challenging this assessment.
Price approaches $65,000
Looking at recent price action, Bitcoin has rebounded from its June low near $59,000, with the 4-hour chart showing a series of higher lows, indicating a recovery in short-term buying pressure. The current price is testing resistance around $64,900 to $65,000, a level that also corresponds to the 0.618 retracement of the previous decline.
If this level is effectively broken, the market's next focus will shift to the resistance zones around $66,700 and $68,500. If it fails to hold above this level, it suggests that this rally may remain confined to a recovery phase.
Derivatives data shows signs of recovery
In addition to the price rebound, some technical and derivatives indicators also suggest easing market pressure. The Chaikin Money Flow on the 4-hour chart has returned above the zero line, indicating renewed capital inflow; the daily MACD histogram has narrowed compared to its previous low, signaling weakened bearish momentum.
In the derivatives market, Bitcoin open interest rose to $46.13 billion over the past day, an increase of 0.12% intraday. The weighted funding rate remained in positive territory at 0.0029%, indicating that traders are increasing their positions while maintaining a generally modest bullish bias, rather than aggressively betting on further declines.
ETF fund flows remain cautious.
However, institutional funds have not fully shifted. According to SoSoValue data, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a net outflow of $19.03 million on June 11.
Among these, BlackRock’s IBIT attracted $30.26 million in net inflows, but outflows from products offered by Fidelity, Ark Invest, Bitwise, and VanEck offset this increase.
This also aligns with Galaxy Digital’s cautious assessment. Alex Thorn noted in his analysis that certain characteristics commonly seen at major market bottoms—such as widespread investor losses and concentrated selling—remain unclear at this time.
Overall, Bitcoin has held support near $59,000, and derivatives traders’ risk appetite is gradually recovering. However, until ETF fund flows show clear strengthening, the key short-term observation range remains between $64,900 and $65,000. A successful breakout could push prices higher toward $68,500, potentially testing the $70,000 psychological level; if prices fail to break through and retreat, discussions about the ongoing nature of this correction will likely persist.