Bitcoin rises 23% in 21 days, faces resistance between $83,000 and $86,000

ChainCatcher report: On-chain analytics platform Glassnode released a report stating that Bitcoin rose 23% over the past 21 trading days, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 remained flat during the same period but are still down 10% for the year. Long-term holder cost basis, futures liquidation maps, and U.S. spot ETF breakeven points all define resistance above $83,000 to $86,000; the spot high is approximately 1.5% above the lower end of this range, followed by narrow consolidation below $80,000. Approximately 1.07 million BTC were purchased by long-term holders between $83,000 and $86,000, with the heaviest concentration near $85,000—a zone that has seen minimal movement over the past 30 days. Selling pressure entering the upper end of this range, measured by the sell risk ratio, stands at 7 basis points per day—less than half of the August peak of 16 basis points. The percentage of realized profits by long-term holders has declined from 88% in August to 47%. The breakeven point for U.S. spot ETFs since their launch is approximately $86,000, with unrealized losses narrowing to around $3.9 billion. U.S. core inflation fell to a two-year low of 2.5%, while inflation expectations stand at 3.6%, creating the widest gap between the two in three years; the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield closed at 4.8%, near a two-year high. Derivatives liquidation heat maps show that the short liquidation shelf between $82,000 and $86,000 has thickened by 21% since the squeeze on August 19.