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Strong non-farm payrolls data raises the stakes for rate hikes; Bitcoin falls below $80,000 but with limited losses.
Bitcoin experienced a "non-farm payrolls shock" last week, surging to around $82,000 on Thursday after Federal Reserve Governor Waller signaled a dovish stance. However, Friday’s non-farm payrolls data came in unexpectedly strong: 162,000 new jobs were added in August, nearly triple the market expectation, causing the probability of a rate hike to jump from around 50% to approximately 60%. The yield on the two-year U.S. Treasury rose to 4.41%, its highest level since January 2025, prompting Bitcoin to retreat from $82,000 to around $79,500 for consolidation.
However, the magnitude of this pullback was far smaller than the decline seen during the previous combination of rising rate hike expectations and surging U.S. Treasury yields. The market sentiment provides an explanation: U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net inflows of approximately $987 million last week, marking the third consecutive week of positive inflows; over the past three weeks, total inflows reached about $3.8 billion, the strongest three-week period since 2026.
Resistance above Bitcoin is concentrated at the 50-week moving average and the $82,000 to $84,000 range. Several technical analysts note that BTC has not yet convincingly closed above the 50-week moving average or broken above May’s high of $83,000, so strictly speaking, a higher high has not yet been confirmed; Colin Talks Crypto reminds that historically, bear markets often require two consecutive weeks of closes above the 50-week moving average to end; Doctor Profit suggests that if $82,500 is breached with strong volume, the next target could be $88,000.
On support levels, the market is closely watching the $77,000 to $78,750 range. Killa noted that after a significant rally, Bitcoin “tends to enter a trading range,” with $77,000 serving as a key level to monitor. However, Dirk Crypto Diggy cautioned that bearish divergences are currently appearing on the daily, 12-hour, and 4-hour charts, and September and October are typically weaker months within bear market cycles; investors chasing higher prices should be wary of “buying the rumor, selling the fact.” Options market signals are also worth noting: traders are buying insurance for a large move on CPI day—if spot BTC consolidates above $78,500 and bullish options positioning continues to build toward $82,000–$85,000, a breakout could trigger passive buying by market makers as a “boost”; conversely, if CPI comes in hotter than expected and volatility rises, seller hedging could amplify the pullback.
Daniel YU, Head of BIT Asset Management, noted that September has historically been a weak month for Bitcoin, with nine out of the past 15 years ending in decline. Currently, a “golden cross” formed by Bitcoin’s 50-day and 200-day moving averages is expected to occur around September 11, coinciding with the release of August’s CPI data. This week’s PPI and CPI figures will directly shape market pricing ahead of the Fed’s interest rate meeting on September 15–16: if CPI comes in moderate, the combination of the “golden cross” and ETF inflows could transform $80,000 from resistance into support; if CPI is hotter than expected, the combination of an interest rate hike and September seasonality would significantly increase the risk of a pullback to $77,500 or even the $72,000–$74,000 range.
Today's highlights:
This Week’s Preview | Anthropic plans to release its IPO prospectus; U.S. August CPI and Core CPI data released
Data: Large unlocks for APT, LINEA, CHEEL, and PEAQ tokens are coming this week.
Upbit will delist the BONK token on September 7.
Ondo Finance will cease minting USDY on Aptos and Noble starting September 8.
Michael Saylor: The goal is to bring STRC back to peg around September 8.
Upbit 24-hour trading volume ranking: XRP, RAY, BTC, ORCA, ETH
Bitcoin spot ETFs saw net inflows of $987 million last week, marking three consecutive weeks of net inflows.
Ethereum spot ETFs saw net inflows of $218 million last week, marking three consecutive weeks of net inflows.
SOL spot ETF saw a net inflow of $6.1751 million last week, marking ten consecutive weeks of net inflows.
XRP spot ETF had a net inflow of $18.96 million last week.
HYPE spot ETF had a net inflow of $12.27 million last week.
Today's top 100 cryptocurrencies by market cap with the highest gains: KAS up 15.5%, TAO up 14.3%, WLD up 13.4%, ICP up 12.5%, LINK up 9.1%.
Non-farm payroll data significantly exceeds expectations, raising interest rate hike expectations and pressuring U.S. stocks, while AI hardware strengthens against the trend.
U.S. and Canadian stock markets are closed on Monday for Labor Day, resulting in a pause in U.S. market liquidity. Friday’s closing prices serve as the final reference point before the holiday: the Dow fell 0.51%, the S&P 500 dropped 0.38%, and the Nasdaq declined 0.29%. The non-farm payrolls data was the sole driver—strong employment suggests rates may remain higher for longer. This week, markets will face key data validation ahead of the Fed’s September interest rate meeting, with traders closely watching Thursday’s PPI and Friday’s CPI data.
U.S. Treasuries are the key variable holding back the stock market, according to Matt Maley, Chief Market Strategist at Miller Tabak, who notes that the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield at 4.8% is a critical threshold; if it remains above this level, the impact will extend beyond the bond market to high-valuation growth stocks, commercial real estate, and other long-duration assets. Michael Chen of Noah ARK Hong Kong also believes that "fiscal dominance" is forcing investors to demand higher risk premiums.
Tesla fell nearly 6% on Friday, posting its largest single-day decline in recent times, as the Cybercab launch lacked live streaming, featured no appearance by Musk, and offered insufficient clarity on fleet size and rollout timeline, compounded by an NHTSA investigation into the self-certification process for vehicles without steering wheels or pedals—triggering another round of “buy the rumor, sell the fact” market behavior; Apple, Microsoft, and other major tech stocks also pulled back simultaneously.
The AI hardware sector withstood pressure逆势, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rising 3.37% last Friday; Aehr increased 13.1%, Coherent rose 10.31%, KLA gained 7.32%, Lam Research climbed 5.12%, and ASML advanced 4.17%. NVIDIA rose 0.84%, with Jensen Huang declaring "AGI has arrived" and stating that OpenAI's Astra is powered by a NVIDIA GPU training cluster of over 100,000 GPUs, with 400,000 more set to come online; The Kobeissi Letter estimates that by 2030, the number of large data centers in the U.S. could increase from approximately 90 to 280, with tech companies' data center investments reaching $7 trillion.
Therefore, after U.S. equities resume trading on Tuesday, NVIDIA, AMD, Broadcom, Micron, SanDisk, TSMC, Oracle, CoreWeave, Vertiv, as well as the optical communications and data center power supply chain, will continue to be key focus areas for capital.
Cryptocurrency-related stocks showed mixed performance; according to BIT US Stocks data, Circle fell 1.14%, Strategy dropped 1.39%, Robinhood declined 2.09%, and Coinbase plunged 4.18%.
In the mining sector, IREN led gains with a 7.27% increase, Hut 8 Mining rose 6.19%, Bitdeer climbed 3.95%, Riot Platforms gained 3.12%, Cipher Digital increased 2.13%, Terawulf rose 1.73%, while Marathon Digital fell 2.50%; Cannanope declined 8.47%; American Bitcoin plunged 14.45%.
Memory chip boom in Japan and South Korea, Hong Kong-listed optical communication stocks surge against the trend
The brightest fire in the Asia-Pacific market today came from South Korea and Japan, with the South Korean KOSPI closing up 4.6%, the Nikkei 225 closing up 2.1%, and the Tokyo Stock Exchange Price Index rising 0.6%.
The core narrative in the Korean market is that “the AI storage cycle is not over.” Goldman Sachs’ Chief Asia Pacific Equity Strategist, Timothy Moe, maintains a KOSPI target of 12,000, arguing that the market has underestimated the earnings cycle boost from AI for memory chip manufacturers; he expects U.S. tech giants to exceed $1.2 trillion in capital expenditures next year, significantly higher than the previous estimate of around $800 billion. Samsung Electronics rose 5.68%, and SK Hynix increased 8.26%, as investors bet on continued realization of HBM and DRAM price increases alongside data center expansions. Goldman Sachs emphasized that valuations of Korea’s advanced memory chip companies remain at historical lows, and current market pricing does not fully reflect the sustainability of AI-related capital spending if earnings materialize.
The Japanese market was driven by chip and technology weights, with Kioxia rising 9.31%, SoftBank Group up 11.22%, and Lasertec Semiconductor gaining 7.26%, as the semiconductor equipment, storage, and AI investment chains strengthened in tandem. However, another key variable for the Japanese market is that foreign reserves fell to $995 billion in August, leading the market to suspect Japan sold portions of its U.S. Treasuries in a record-sized yen intervention; if this behavior continues, upward pressure on long-term U.S. Treasury supply could intensify further.
In the A-share market, the ChiNext Index opened higher and continued to rise, gaining 3.41%, while the SSE Composite Index rose 0.07% and the Shenzhen Component Index increased 1.91%. Approximately 3,100 stocks across the market advanced, with capital flowing heavily into computing hardware, PCBs, CPO, memory chips, and communications equipment. Computing hardware emerged as the strongest theme in the A-share market, with multiple stocks including Cambridge Technology, Jingwang Electronics, Zhongjing Electronics, and Shennan Circuits hitting涨停 (limit-up). Zhongji Xuchuang’s A-shares rose over 10%, with its market capitalization returning to the trillion-yuan mark. Goldman Sachs assigned Zhongji Xuchuang an A-share “Buy” rating with a target price of RMB 2,645, and initiated coverage on its H-shares with a target price of HKD 3,267; Citigroup also initiated coverage on Zhongji Xuchuang’s H-shares with a “Buy” rating, citing benefits from AI optical communication demand, bandwidth upgrades, silicon photonics technology, and capacity expansion.
Hong Kong stocks overall weakened, with the Hang Seng Index falling 0.93% and the Hang Seng Tech Index dropping 0.92%. Most tech stocks declined, with Baidu down 5.74%, Xiaomi down 3.94%, Meituan down 2.02%, and Tencent down 0.72%. However, the computing power sector surged against the trend, with Cambridge Technology rising 21.06%, InnoLight Technology up 13.22%, Huizhu Technology up 7.73%, and YOFC up 7.40%. In the PCB sector, Guanghe Technology gained 13.69%, ChipMOS Technologies rose 11.35%, Shenghong Technology increased 11.09%, and Kingboard Holdings climbed 7.73%.
Policy measures are also reinforcing the narratives around communications and domestic computing power. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has proposed achieving a fully built next-generation communication network by 2030, timely initiating 6G commercialization, and advancing pilot projects for 10G optical networks. Huawei has launched the Mate XT 2 tri-fold smartphone, powered by the all-new Kirin 9050 Pro chip—Huawei’s first newly developed high-performance Kirin chip in six years.
The financial sector faced pressure as the Ministry of Finance completed the injection of 300 billion yuan in special government bonds into central financial institutions, providing capital replenishment to ICBC, ABC, PICC, Reinsurance Group of China, China Life, China Taiping, China Exim Bank, and China Export & Credit Insurance Corporation. CITIC Construction believes this will help stabilize credit and expectations, but short-term capital clearly favors AI hardware.
Next, pay attention to:
September 7 (Monday)
U.S. and Canadian stock markets are closed for Labor Day: U.S. markets are closed for one day, and trading in gold, silver, and oil ends early, leading to a significant decrease in global liquidity. In a low-liquidity environment, Middle East tensions, crude oil gaps, and dollar volatility are more likely to be amplified, with Asian and European trading sessions taking on a greater role in price discovery.
Huawei Mate XT 2 (14:30), Xiaomi 18 Fold launch (19:00): Huawei’s new tri-fold flagship will debut HarmonyOS 7, while the Xiaomi 18 Fold will be powered by the Xuanjie O3 AI flagship processor. The foldable screen, hinge, panel, storage, precision components, and edge-side AI supply chain may receive sentiment boosts.
The expansion of the Stock Connect program has taken effect: Baidu Group-W, Qunxi Tech, and others have been officially added to the list of eligible stocks for Stock Connect. The inflow of southbound funds will influence the short-term performance of the related stocks.
September 8 (Tuesday)
0:00 Canada's retaliatory tariffs on approximately $20 billion worth of U.S. goods have taken effect: renewed trade tensions could increase cost uncertainty for North American supply chains. Companies in automotive, agriculture, industrial goods, and cross-border supply chain sectors may experience market sentiment disruptions.
9:20 Jiangbo Long lists on the Hong Kong stock exchange: The company aims to raise no more than HK$6.28 billion, with the H-share offering price significantly discounted compared to its A-share price; today’s performance will test sentiment toward the storage industry supply chain and semiconductor IPOs.
23:00 U.S. August New York Fed 1-Year Inflation Expectations: If inflation expectations rise, the Fed will find it harder to pause rate hikes; if they fall, pressure on U.S. bond yields and the dollar may ease.
September 9 (Wednesday)
0:00 The U.S. Treasury's expanded Treasury buyback program has taken effect: the single-session buyback size has been increased by at least double to over $4 billion, continuing until November 4, aiming to improve liquidity in the long-end Treasury market. If the buybacks enhance market absorption capacity, the 10-year Treasury yield may temporarily decline; if demand for long-term bonds remains weak, the risk of yields approaching 5% will continue to pressure tech stock valuations.
01:00 $58 billion 3-year U.S. Treasury auction: This is the first key test of the three-day auction window.
From September 9 to 10, the U.S. Republican Party held its midterm convention: the market is closely watching Trump and the Republican Party’s positions on tariffs, fiscal policy, immigration, and energy. If the policy tone is perceived as hawkish, it could impact the dollar, energy, defense, manufacturing reshoring, and global trade chain pricing.
From September 9 to 10, the Paris Space Summit: U.S. companies such as Blue Origin, SpaceX, StokeSpace, and Starcloud are reportedly absent; attention should be paid to whether political or commercial friction is emerging in U.S.-Europe space cooperation, potentially causing sentiment volatility in commercial space and satellite communications stocks.
From September 9 to 10, the 11th Belt and Road Forum was held at the Hong Kong Convention and Exhibition Centre, with Li Jiachao in attendance.
Udi Robotics listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange: The enthusiasm for this robotics IPO will influence sentiment in the robotics, automation, and AI hardware sectors.