Odaily Planet Daily reports, according to the Bitfinex Alpha analysis report, the August employment data strengthened expectations of a Fed rate hike in September, with the probability of a 25-basis-point hike on September 16 now rising to approximately 60%. However, Bitcoin remains around $80,000, and U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net inflows of about $986.7 million last week.
Data shows that U.S. non-farm payroll employment increased by 162,000 in August, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.1%; the manufacturing PMI rose to 54.6, indicating the economy did not experience a sharp slowdown. However, input costs remain elevated, and inflationary pressures have shifted market policy discussions back toward rate hikes.
Meanwhile, U.S. Treasury yields continue to pressure risk assets, with the 2-year yield rising to 4.37% and the 30-year yield holding at a high of 5.24%. Bitfinex notes that Bitcoin has recently encountered resistance near $82,000 and remains range-bound between approximately $77,200 and $82,100.
Bitfinex believes that continued ETF inflows and growth in stablecoin supply provide support for Bitcoin, but expectations around Federal Reserve policy and elevated U.S. Treasury yields constrain upward potential. If this week’s inflation data comes in below expectations, the market may again bet on a pause in rate hikes in September; conversely, persistent inflationary pressures could further reinforce expectations of rate increases. Before breaking out of the current trading range, Bitcoin is more likely to remain in a strong sideways consolidation rather than confirm the start of a new upward trend.