Bitcoin has just printed one of the most historically significant technical signals in its cycle history. On August 20, 2026 — after 80 days of trading below the level — Bitcoin reclaimed its 1,130-day Simple Moving Average as support, breaking above $74,000 to initiate the reclaim before extending to the current $80,697. According to analyst Ali Charts (@alicharts), this specific moving average has preceded the beginning of a new Bitcoin bull market in every one of the past four cycles — without a single exception.
The reclaim is not occurring in isolation. It is arriving on the back of a weekly surge from approximately $62,700 to nearly $80,000 — one of Bitcoin’s strongest 7-day performances in recent years — accompanied by $2.74 billion in short liquidations on August 19, a White House crypto summit where President Trump declared “the war on crypto is over,” and a macro environment that shifted materially with the U.S. Treasury doubling long-end bond buybacks.
The 1,130-Day SMA — What It Is and Why It Matters
The 1,130-day Simple Moving Average is not a standard technical indicator used in everyday trading analysis. It is a long-cycle tool — averaging Bitcoin’s price across more than three years of daily closes — that filters out short-term noise and reflects the macro-level momentum of Bitcoin’s multi-year price structure.
Because it averages such a long period, the 1,130-day SMA moves slowly and deliberately. Price crossing above or below it is not a routine technical event — it reflects a sustained and significant directional shift in Bitcoin’s long-term trend. This is precisely what makes the indicator historically meaningful rather than arbitrary.
The Four-Cycle Track Record
Analyst Ali Charts (@alicharts) identified that across Bitcoin’s past four market cycles, the reclaim of the 1,130-day SMA has consistently marked the transition from bear market to bull market — each time:
| Cycle | 1,130-Day SMA Reclaim | What Followed |
|---|---|---|
| Cycle 1 | After 2015 bear market low | 2016–2017 bull run → ATH $20,000 |
| Cycle 2 | After 2018–2019 bear market | 2020–2021 bull run → ATH $69,000 |
| Cycle 3 | After 2022 bear market low | 2023–2025 recovery → ATH $146,000+ |
| Cycle 4 | August 20, 2026 | Pending — current |
In each prior instance, the reclaim of the 1,130-day SMA did not guarantee an immediate continuation higher — but it did mark the macro structural transition point from a market that was in long-term decline to one that was establishing a new bullish trend. The medium and longer-term outcomes in each case were significantly positive for investors who recognized the signal at the time it occurred.
The 80-Day Below — What the Breakdown and Reclaim Mean Together
Understanding the current reclaim requires understanding what happened before it.
The June 1 Breakdown
On June 1, 2026, Bitcoin lost the 1,130-day SMA — closing below the moving average for the first time since the prior cycle’s recovery phase. This breakdown triggered a deterioration in Bitcoin’s long-term technical structure and accompanied the deeply oversold conditions that characterized Bitcoin’s price action through June, July, and into August 2026.
The 80-day period below the 1,130-day SMA was not simply a price correction — it was a sustained bear phase by the definition this specific moving average provides. As documented across our August 2026 analysis series — including the Bitcoin ADCI accumulation zone at 21.74, LTH MVRV approaching historic lows, and Bitcoin’s Sharpe Ratio hitting -0.99 — the on-chain and macro evidence throughout this period was building the case that Bitcoin was in the later stages of a corrective cycle rather than the beginning of an extended decline.
The 80 days below the 1,130-day SMA was the bear market phase that the on-chain data was identifying as structurally limited — and the August 20 reclaim is the technical confirmation that the phase has ended.
The August 20 Reclaim
The reclaim of the 1,130-day SMA on August 20, 2026 required Bitcoin breaking above $74,000 — the approximate level at which the moving average was sitting when the reclaim occurred. The subsequent extension to $80,697 confirms that the reclaim was not a fleeting intraday breach but a sustained move that has maintained price above the moving average across multiple sessions.
In the four prior cycle instances, a sustained reclaim — price closing above the 1,130-day SMA for multiple consecutive sessions — was the specific condition that activated the historical signal. The current structure is tracking that pattern.
The Weekly Move — Context for the Reclaim
The 1,130-day SMA reclaim did not happen in a vacuum. It was the technical byproduct of one of Bitcoin’s strongest single-week performances in recent history:
Starting level: ~$62,700 (Bitcoin’s position heading into the August 19 catalyst week)
Current level: ~$80,697
Weekly gain: +25.82% — approximately $18,000 in absolute price terms in 7 days
This weekly move was driven by the convergence of catalysts covered in our August 19 $2.99 billion liquidation and Trump White House analysis and Bitcoin $68,500 surge and Treasury buyback breakdown:
- U.S. Treasury doubling long-end bond buybacks ($2B → $4B+)
- President Trump declaring “the war on crypto is over” at the White House
- $2.74 billion in short liquidations — 8th largest in crypto history
- $487 million in two-day Bitcoin ETF inflows
- Improving SEC regulatory framework
The scale of the weekly move — from $62,700 to $80,697 — is what carried Bitcoin through the 1,130-day SMA level and produced the multi-session sustained reclaim that activates the historical signal.
What the Signal Does and Doesn’t Say
Precision in interpreting the 1,130-day SMA reclaim is important — the historical track record is compelling, but it requires accurate framing:
What it says: The macro technical structure has transitioned from bearish to constructive. In every prior cycle, the sustained reclaim of this moving average has marked the structural end of the bear phase and the beginning of a sustained recovery period. The signal has a four-for-four historical success rate in identifying this transition.
What it doesn’t say: It does not specify the speed or path of the recovery that follows. Prior cycle recoveries that followed the 1,130-day SMA reclaim took different amounts of time and had different volatility profiles before delivering their full upside. Short-term corrections and retests of the moving average are possible — and historically have occurred — after the initial reclaim.
What to watch for continuation: A sustained series of weekly closes above the 1,130-day SMA — with price not dipping back below the moving average on a sustained basis — would confirm the reclaim is holding. A weekly close decisively back below the moving average would weaken the signal and require re-evaluation.
As covered in our Bitcoin spot demand flashing bullish reversal with 87% win rate analysis and Bitcoin records highest demand of 2026 alongside 12-month RSI reset, the on-chain demand and momentum framework that was building through August has now found its technical cycle confirmation in the 1,130-day SMA reclaim.
Bottom Line
Bitcoin’s reclaim of the 1,130-day Simple Moving Average on August 20, 2026 — after 80 days below following the June 1 breakdown — is the most historically grounded long-term technical signal Bitcoin has produced in the current cycle. A four-for-four track record of marking the transition from bear market to bull market across every prior cycle is not a coincidence or a cherry-picked pattern — it is the most specific and consistently validated macro technical signal in Bitcoin’s analytical toolkit.
The signal is now confirmed. $80,697 is where Bitcoin stands after the reclaim. The question the market will be answering over the coming weeks is not whether the bear market has ended — the 1,130-day SMA reclaim has historically answered that — but how the new bull phase unfolds in terms of pace, volatility, and magnitude relative to prior cycles.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the 1,130-day SMA in Bitcoin?
The 1,130-day Simple Moving Average is a long-term technical indicator that has historically marked the end of Bitcoin bear markets when price reclaims it as support.
Has Bitcoin reclaimed the 1,130-day SMA in 2026?
Yes. Bitcoin reclaimed the 1,130-day SMA as support on August 20, 2026 after trading below it for approximately 80 days.
What does reclaiming the 1,130-day SMA mean for Bitcoin?
Historically, Bitcoin has entered a new bull market shortly after reclaiming this moving average across the past four market cycles.
Is the Bitcoin bear market over in 2026?
The reclaim of the 1,130-day SMA is a historically bullish signal that suggests the market bottom may already be in, though short-term volatility remains possible.