Bitcoin falling below the realized price of holders who have held for one to three months may cause this level to become a new resistance area.
Analysts warn that as recent buyers have overall turned unprofitable, Bitcoin (BTC) could turn $77,700 into a new resistance level.
Key points:
- Bitcoin has fallen below $77,700, which was the cost basis for buyers one to three months ago and may now act as a new resistance level.
- The profitability data highlights the support zone around $68,400, representing a 12% net loss for these buyers.
- Short-term Bitcoin holders are facing a shift to net losses, with a cost basis of $75,832.
Bitcoin's cost basis of $77,700 may turn into resistance.
Data from the on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant shows that BTC/USD is currently trading below the realized price—also known as the cost basis—of investors who entered the market over the past one to three months.
CryptoQuant defines these investors as speculative traders, making them more sensitive to short-term price fluctuations. During Bitcoin bull markets, their cost basis has historically formed support within upward trends.
A contributor at CryptoQuant said in Monday’s analysis: “However, after BTC breaks below this level, the same cost basis may later act as resistance, as trapped traders may view a return to breakeven as an opportunity to exit.”
According to CryptoQuant’s Trader Onchain Realized Price Bands indicator, this cost basis is currently at $77,700, while BTC/USD is around $76,500.
The contributor added, "Another notable phenomenon is that the Trader Realized Price has been steadily rising while BTC has been correcting. The gap between price and cost basis has now significantly narrowed."
BTC/USD has traded above the Trader Onchain Realized Price since August 19, before subsequently breaking below that level. Price Bands establish fixed profit and loss ranges above and below the cost basis. The nearest lower band, located at a 12% total loss, currently corresponds to $68,400. The last time price fell below this band was in early June, after which it deviated as far as 12.6% below the band over the following month.
Short-term Bitcoin holders are focusing on profit-taking.
After breaking below $77,000, Bitcoin is also approaching the realized price of short-term holders (STHs), a broader group of speculative investors. This trend line typically acts as support in an uptrend and becomes resistance when a downtrend reverses.
These investors have held their BTC without selling for up to 155 days, with a cost basis of $75,832 as of Tuesday. This corresponds to an MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) ratio reading of 1.012 for this group. The MVRV ratio compares the market value of coins held by short-term holders to their realized value, which is calculated based on the price at which these coins were last transferred on-chain.
This indicator shows that once the price falls below the MVRV breakeven level corresponding to short-term holders, the next key psychological support level is an MVRV reading of 0.85, described in the text as a "tactical surrender" or "shorts trap" zone.
In early June, BTC/USD last fell below the 0.85 MVRV level, then regained it by mid-August.
Bitcoin STH realization price and MVRV data. Source: CryptoQuant
Bitcoin price
Market
Bitcoin
More related content
- BlackRock's IBIT recorded the largest net outflow from a Bitcoin ETF since June.
- A 7% drop in oil prices failed to spark a BTC rebound, with Bitcoin at risk of falling below $76,000.
- The expenditure for the STRC buyback strategy is three times its weekly Bitcoin purchase amount.