Bitcoin rebounded to $81,000 after U.S. President Donald Trump ruled out an attack on Iran before the November 3 midterm elections; meanwhile, oil prices declined following his statement.
- According to TradingView data cited in the report, Bitcoin rebounded above $81,000 following Trump's remarks.
- Trump said discussions with Iran were "productive," but U.S. sanctions will continue.
- Polymarket traders assign a 60% probability to a ceasefire lasting until November 15.
- Iran's Foreign Minister stated that Tehran will respond to Washington's proposal within the coming days.
On October 8, Trump stated on his Truth Social post that Washington is engaged in "productive discussions" with Tehran and will not attack Iran before Americans vote on November 3. He also said the sanctions will remain in place and reaffirmed his position that Iran must not acquire nuclear weapons.
After Trump's statement, Bitcoin returned to $81,000.
According to TradingView data cited in the attached report, Bitcoin rebounded above $81,000 following Trump’s announcement. PrimeXBT’s market report on October 8 also noted this rebound, stating that oil prices declined after the president’s remarks.
The same report stated that the market experienced significant volatility that day, with Bitcoin briefly falling below $81,000—the first time it had dropped below that level since September 21. According to data from the trading platform, over $480 million in crypto positions were liquidated within one hour, with the majority of losses coming from short positions.
Earlier reports indicated that tensions from the conflict had disrupted Bitcoin's September rebound. On September 28, crypto.news reported that Bitcoin had fallen below $84,000 after rising above $87,000 the previous week, with renewed uncertainty surrounding the situation in Iran weighing on the market.
According to the report, Trump rejected an Iranian proposal that involved reopening the Strait of Hormuz for seven days and pausing hostilities before negotiating outstanding issues. During his speech on that Sunday, he said the conflict could end soon, but did not rule out military action before the midterm elections.
Trump maintains the blockade while ruling out an attack.
According to Ynetnews, Trump described diplomatic engagement as "productive discussions" in his post on Thursday. He also stated that Iran remains under economic and military pressure, and that U.S. sanctions are still in place.
Trump stated that 22 million barrels of oil passed through the Strait of Hormuz the previous night, but no oil entered or left Iran. He described this volume as a record in his post and said the blockade would remain fully effective.
Before the president’s commitment was announced, reports indicated that military officials were preparing to revive options for strikes. Ynetnews, citing Axios, reported that U.S. Central Command received instructions several days ago to complete preparations for potentially resuming large-scale military operations, though Trump has not yet made a final decision or set a date.
Ynetnews also reported in another article that NBC News stated Trump and his national security team are discussing large-scale actions over the coming weeks. The outlet also cited The Atlantic, reporting that the Pentagon has been asked to prepare potential strike plans prior to the election.
According to Ynetnews, citing The Atlantic, officials are still considering the scale of action, and a larger military operation may take place after the vote. The report describes preparatory work and internal discussions, not an approved strike.
Previous conflicts have impacted Bitcoin and the U.S. markets.
The impact of the conflict on oil prices and U.S. financial markets was documented in a market report issued on September 1. Following new U.S. strikes against Iranian targets, Bitcoin fell below $78,000 and $77,000, dropping to a low of approximately $76,762, a notable decline from its intraday high near $79,166.
According to CoinGlass data cited in the report, approximately $115 million in crypto leveraged long positions were liquidated within one hour. Ethereum also dropped below $2,400 during the sell-off.
According to Reuters data cited in the report, Brent crude closed up 4.6% at $94.65 per barrel; U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude rose 5.2% to $90.22 per barrel. The report also noted rising U.S. Treasury yields and the S&P 500 falling to its lowest level since August 4.
U.S. investors' exposure is also reflected through Bitcoin funds listed in the United States. According to a report on September 28, citing data from Farside Investors, net inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs reached $2.39 billion between September 21 and 25. Each trading day recorded positive inflows, with BlackRock’s IBIT accounting for approximately $1.16 billion.
A market report dated August 31 noted another period: despite the resumption of hostilities and rising oil prices, Bitcoin remained near $77,900. According to the report, BTC rose approximately 23% in August, compared to a 9% monthly gain for gold and a 4% gain for the Nasdaq.
The same report stated that U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have attracted a cumulative inflow of approximately $2.8 billion over eight consecutive trading days. Data from Farside cited in the report subsequently showed a net outflow of approximately $201.9 million on August 28.
Iran is preparing to respond to Washington's proposal.
According to the attached report, after Trump’s statement, Polymarket traders assigned a 60% probability that the ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran will last until November 15. A report from PrimeXBT on October 8 also indicated a 60% probability that the ceasefire will last until mid-November.
On the diplomatic front, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stated that Tehran has submitted its seven-day proposal and received a response from Washington, according to Antiwar.com citing WANA.
The foreign minister said Iran is reviewing the U.S. response and expects to reply within the coming days. In the same statement, he warned that if Washington proceeds with military action, Tehran is better prepared than ever and will take measures to defend itself.