Odaily Planet Daily reports: Axel Adler, an analyst at CryptoQuant, stated that during the current Bitcoin bear market, holders have experienced the highest-ever realized losses, with the 30-day moving average (30DMA) of realized losses peaking at $1.37 billion in February 2026—19% higher than the previous cycle high of $1.15 billion in 2022. Data shows that since the February peak, Bitcoin’s realized losses have declined by 56.5%, dropping to approximately $597 million; meanwhile, realized gains have only slowly recovered to $257 million. Axel Adler noted that selling pressure driven by losses has clearly weakened, but the market has not yet seen sustained demand recovery, as the pace of loss reduction continues to outpace the rebound in gains.
Compared to historical cycles, the realized loss reached $1.37 billion on February 20, 2026, setting a new all-time high for this metric; the highest realized loss during the 2022 cycle was $1.15 billion, occurring on June 30, 2022. Regarding realized gains, as of July 23, the 30-day moving average of Bitcoin’s realized profit stood at $257 million, a 92.7% decline from the peak of $3.51 billion recorded on December 10, 2024, and a 77.7% decline from the level on October 6, 2025, when Bitcoin reached its all-time high of $124,710. This metric hit a low of $191 million on June 14, 2026, and has since rebounded by 34.7%.
Axel Adler stated that profit-taking pressure has significantly decreased, and the amount of coins being sold at a profit remains at a low level for this cycle. However, this does not mean that sellers have been fully exhausted or that market demand has recovered. A sustained increase in profits to over $400 million to $500 million would provide stronger confirmation of ongoing market improvement.
Additionally, the Bitcoin realized profit/loss ratio has risen from its June low of 0.26 to 0.43, but remains below the 1.0 level. Analysts note that while the absolute scale of realized losses in this cycle exceeds that of 2022, relative market pressure remains lower than in 2022. Over the past 291 days since Bitcoin’s all-time high, realized losses have exceeded realized profits on 190 days. Axel Adler warns that if the profit/loss ratio falls below 0.26 again, accompanied by a price break below the cycle low of $58,535 set on June 30, it could signal further intensification of market pressure.