Bitcoin realized losses dropped 56% from the February peak, but demand recovery remains weak.

Huoxing Finance reports that CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler noted that during the current Bitcoin bear market, holders have experienced the largest realized losses in history, with the 30-day moving average (30DMA) of realized losses peaking at $1.37 billion on February 26, 2026—19% higher than the previous cycle high of $1.15 billion in 2022. Data shows that since the February peak, Bitcoin’s realized losses have declined by 56.5%, dropping to approximately $597 million; meanwhile, realized profits have only slowly recovered to $257 million. Axel Adler pointed out that selling pressure driven by losses has clearly weakened, but the market has not yet seen sustained demand recovery, as the pace of loss reduction remains faster than the rebound in profits. Historically, realized losses reached $1.37 billion on February 20, 2026—a record high—compared to $1.15 billion at the peak of the 2022 cycle on June 30, 2022. Regarding realized profits, as of July 23, Bitcoin’s 30DMA of realized profits stood at $257 million, down 92.7% from the peak of $3.51 billion on December 10, 2024, and down 77.7% from the all-time high of $124,710 reached on October 6, 2025. This metric previously hit a low of $191 million on June 14, 2026, and has since rebounded by 34.7%. Axel Adler stated that profit-taking pressure has significantly diminished, with the volume of coins sold at profit still at a low level for this cycle; however, this does not imply that sellers have been fully exhausted or that demand has recovered. A sustained rise in realized profits above $400–500 million would provide stronger confirmation of ongoing market improvement. Additionally, Bitcoin’s realized profit/loss ratio has rebounded from its June low of 0.26 to 0.43 but remains below the 1.0 level. The analyst noted that although absolute realized losses in this cycle exceed those of 2022, relative market pressure remains lower than in 2022. Over the past 291 days since Bitcoin’s all-time high, realized losses exceeded realized profits on 190 days. Axel Adler warned that if the profit/loss ratio falls back below 0.26 alongside a price decline below the cycle low of $58,535 set on June 30, it could signal further intensification of market pressure.