Glassnode said the share of Bitcoin short-term holder supply in profit has declined to about 70% from nearly 100% in late September. Glassnode said on Tuesday that recent Bitcoin buyers had moved out of the zone associated with strong selling pressure. Almost all short-term holder supply was profitable in late September, a condition that often indicates substantial profit-taking risk. Glassnode described the current level as a considerably better buying opportunity than a month ago for buyers expecting the uptrend to resume.
Market analyst Rand Group said every Bitcoin bottom shown on the chart had formed through capitulation and selling. Rand Group described the current decline as a test of traders' conviction. Rand Group asked whether traders would retain Bitcoin through the decline or sell and supply liquidity for the next cycle.
Milk Road analyst John Gillen said on the Milk Road Show that Bitcoin holding near $80,000 suggests the recent rally remains intact despite macroeconomic uncertainty. Gillen said Bitcoin could realistically reach either $60,000 or $100,000 before the end of the year. Gillen said a retreat to the 50-week moving average, between $76,000 and $78,000, would represent a normal retest rather than a failed rally. A decisive decline below $75,500 could restore bearish control. A fall toward $60,000 would create more serious doubts about the recovery. Gillen identified more than $6 trillion in money market funds as potential liquidity that could lift Bitcoin without Federal Reserve intervention.
Trader Ansem said Bitcoin, Ethereum and large-cap stocks face declines. Ansem argued that Bitcoin and Ethereum had broken their mid-timeframe trends and could fall below $82,000 and $2,400, respectively. Ansem cited the Nasdaq's failure to sustain a recent breakout and Meta's post-earnings decline last week as evidence of a parabolic blowoff top in AI momentum stocks. Ansem said investors want stronger evidence that substantial AI capital spending produces profits. Ansem identified this week's FOMC meeting and numerous earnings releases as catalysts that could increase volatility. However, Ansem said the longer-timeframe outlook remains positive and expects Bitcoin and Ethereum to decline before rising again.
Bitcoin Profit-Taking Cools as Analysts Weigh Market Outlook Ahead of FOMC
BenzingaShare
Summary
Bitcoin news shows profit-taking cooling, with short-term holder profit share falling to 70% from nearly 100% in late September, per Glassnode. Analysts remain cautious ahead of the FOMC meeting. Rand Group said current declines test trader conviction. Milk Road’s John Gillen sees Bitcoin analysis pointing to $60,000 or $100,000 by year-end. Trader Ansem warned of further declines in Bitcoin, Ethereum, and large-cap stocks due to broken trends and macro uncertainty.
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