Odaily Planet Daily reports that the overall profitability of the Bitcoin market is improving, but on-chain data indicates that it is still insufficient to confirm the start of a new bull market, and the market remains at risk of another downturn.
CryptoQuant data shows that Bitcoin’s supply in profit has risen to 57.5%. This metric represents the proportion of BTC supply trading above its acquisition cost, marking a significant recovery from the June 30, 2026 low of 46.2% and nearing the 60% level. However, the recovery in supply in profit still requires continued validation; historical cycles indicate that a bear market truly ends only when two conditions are simultaneously met:
The 30-day simple moving average of the Long-Term Holder Profit/Loss Ratio (LTH-SOPR) has remained consistently above 1 without dropping below for several weeks;
Second, the percentage of profitable Bitcoin supply must remain stably above 64%.
Analysts note that this cycle previously experienced a "false breakout." Between April 28 and June 1 of this year, the LTH-SOPR average remained above 1 for 35 consecutive days, and the percentage of profitable supply rose as high as 67%, but the market subsequently declined again. Currently, the 30-day SMA for long-term holders has been below 1 for over 50 consecutive days, remaining a key risk signal for assessing the strength of market recovery.
Although the percentage of BTC supply in profit is improving, the market needs further confirmation of long-term holder behavior and changes in the profit structure to determine whether the current rebound has truly shifted into a new upward cycle. (Cointelegraph)