Huo Xing Finance reports that the overall profitability of the Bitcoin market is improving, but on-chain data indicates it is still insufficient to confirm the start of a new bull market, with risks of another downturn remaining. According to CryptoQuant data, the percentage of Bitcoin supply in profit (Supply in Profit) has risen to 57.5%. This metric represents the proportion of BTC supply trading above its acquisition cost, showing a clear recovery from the June 30, 2026 low of 46.2% and now approaching 60%. However, the recovery of the supply-in-profit ratio still requires sustained validation. Historical cycles show that a bear market typically ends only when two conditions are met simultaneously: first, the 30-day simple moving average of the Long-Term Holder SOPR (LTH-SOPR) remains consistently above 1 for several weeks without dipping below; second, the Bitcoin supply-in-profit ratio must stabilize above 64%. Analysts note that this cycle previously experienced one “false breakout.” Between April 28 and June 1 this year, the LTH-SOPR average remained above 1 for 35 consecutive days, while the supply-in-profit ratio briefly reached 67%, only for the market to decline again afterward. Currently, the 30-day SMA for long-term holders has remained below 1 for over 50 consecutive days, continuing to serve as a key risk signal for assessing market recovery strength. Although the Bitcoin supply-in-profit ratio is improving, further confirmation of long-term holder behavior and changes in the profit structure is needed to determine whether the current rebound has genuinely transitioned into a new upward cycle.
Bitcoin profit supply nears 60%, but bull market not yet confirmed
MarsBitShare
Summary
Bitcoin news reports that Bitcoin’s profit supply has risen to 57.5%, nearing the 60% threshold. However, analysts caution that a new bull market remains unconfirmed. Historical data indicates that a bear market ends only when the 30-day SMA of LTH-SOPR remains above 1 and profit supply exceeds 64%. A false breakout occurred in April–June 2026, when profit supply reached 67%, followed by a market decline. The 30-day SMA of LTH-SOPR has remained below 1 for over 50 days, signaling continued risk. Traders are also monitoring altcoins for potential price movements.
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