Bitcoin prices held firm amid concerns over "Black Monday," as crypto investors weighed rising warnings of potential selling pressure, social media anxieties, recent ETF redemptions, and signs of broader market recovery.
- After sparking widespread attention on social media with warnings of another "Black Monday," Bitcoin's price rebounded above $82,000.
- Santiment reported that mentions of "Black Monday" reached 176 on October 18, far exceeding the previous daily average.
- Last week, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced a net outflow of approximately $229 million, with redemptions from BlackRock’s funds leading the way.
- Analysts view $81,000 as a key support level, while a stronger rebound signal would require Bitcoin to reclaim a higher resistance level.
- A Bitcoin wallet that has been inactive since 2013 transferred approximately 411 BTC to another address, valued at around $34 million.
According to CoinGecko data, as of press time, Bitcoin is trading at approximately $82,795, up 1.13% over the past 24 hours, but down 1.37% over the past seven days. The cryptocurrency’s daily trading volume is around $25.4 billion, with a market capitalization nearing $1.66 trillion.
This rebound followed a challenging week in financial markets, during which Bitcoin briefly fell below $80,000. Tech stocks came under pressure, oil prices remained elevated, and investors continued to assess the likelihood of monetary policy tightening.
Nevertheless, despite market predictions of another sharp decline on October 19, Bitcoin closed near $82,000 on October 18. These warnings coincided with the 39th anniversary of the October 19, 1987, stock market crash.
Concerns over Bitcoin's "Black Monday" drive increased social discussion
Blockchain analytics firm Santiment said discussions on cryptocurrency social media surrounding a potential "Black Monday" have significantly increased.
On October 18, the phrase "Black Monday" was mentioned 176 times, compared to fewer than two mentions per day on average over the previous 60 days. Data shows that expectations of significant selling spread rapidly among market participants ahead of the Monday trading session.
The most active six-hour period occurred between 18:00 and 24:00 UTC, with 82 mentions recorded by Santiment. This period aligns with the reopening of U.S. stock index futures, as traders begin responding to changes that occurred over the weekend.
Mentions of market crashes reached 105 times, a level Santiment noted as unusually high for a Sunday. However, this number remains within the range observed over the past 90 days, indicating that broader discussions about a crash have not reached unprecedented levels.
Santiment compared the latest reading to a slight increase in negative sentiment on September 14. Bitcoin fell about 3% the following day, but the firm noted that similar sentiment signals have previously corresponded to different market outcomes.
These metrics measure discussions about potential crashes, not the actual probability of a crash occurring. Social media activity may increase due to warnings, bearish predictions, and traders discussing potential market movements.
The current price rebound serves as a perfect example: despite an unusually high number of negative forecasts, Bitcoin rose on Monday.
Bitcoin ETFs experienced a net outflow of $229 million, indicating weakening institutional demand.
Institutional investment activity showed mixed trends in the week ending October 16, with U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recording a net outflow of approximately $228.6 million.
Based on fund flow data from October 12 to 16, BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) experienced approximately $165 million in outflows, while Fidelity’s FBTC recorded approximately $60 million in redemptions during the same period.
Selling was concentrated over multiple trading days, with Bitcoin ETFs recording a net outflow of approximately $261 million on Wednesday, October 14. The net inflow of $176 million recorded on Tuesday was insufficient to offset redemptions on the other trading days.
According to the weekly roundup from Crypto.news, Ethereum ETFs recorded a net outflow of approximately $320.1 million, nearly $92 million more than the outflow from Bitcoin funds. Across the five tracked categories of crypto ETFs, total net outflows reached $610.7 million.
These figures reflect the net change from investor subscriptions and redemptions, not actual trading losses incurred by all ETF shareholders. Even if investors do not redeem their holdings, the fund's assets may still decline in value due to falling market prices.
The latest Bitcoin ETF outflows occurred against the backdrop of a net outflow of approximately $679 million the previous week. Although the outflows during the week of October 12–16 were smaller, two consecutive weeks of negative flows indicate that institutional demand remains unstable.
Market conditions slightly improved on Monday, supported by stronger-than-expected Chinese economic growth and a decline in oil prices. China’s economy grew by 4.5% year-over-year in the third quarter, while oil prices fell following U.S. restrictions on Russia’s energy-related activities.
Analysts are watching $81,000 as Bitcoin attempts to recover its trend.
Despite intraday rebounds, several analysts are still monitoring key technical levels that could determine whether Bitcoin can sustain its upward momentum.
Crypto analyst Ted noted that Bitcoin achieved another weekly close above $82,000, despite weak tech stocks, oil prices remaining above $100, and elevated market volatility.
He views $84,500 as the level Bitcoin needs to reclaim to demonstrate stronger upward momentum. If it fails to regain this level, he warns that Bitcoin could still fall back below $80,000.
Analyst Ali Martinez views $81,000 as the lower boundary of the uptrend channel on Bitcoin’s daily chart. He believes that if this level continues to attract buying support, the price could rebound to $84,000, followed by a further rise to $86,500.
Martinez stated that if Bitcoin continues to break below $81,000, this chart pattern will be weakened. He has identified $76,000 as a lower level to watch. His analysis describes a conditional scenario based on technical indicators, not a confirmed future price movement.
Another analysis by Crypto Patel presents a longer-term bullish chart structure, with $89,000 as resistance and $75,600 as support. The analyst also identifies around $66,700 as another potential retest level, and indicates that the bullish structure would be invalidated if the price falls below approximately $59,800.
Patel’s bullish targets include $90,000 to $100,000, with an extended target of $125,000 if the bullish structure continues to form. These projections depend on future price movements and do not imply that Bitcoin has completed its correction.
CoinGecko’s seven-day range of $79,806 to $84,074 shows that Bitcoin has recently been trading within the range highlighted by several analysts. As of the time of this report, the asset remains approximately 34.4% below its all-time high of $126,080.
Bitcoin $10,000 prediction contrasts with current price movement
While short-term traders are focusing on the $80,000 area, analyst Michaël van de Poppe discusses the potential for larger upward moves within the current market cycle.
In a post on October 17, van de Poppe shared a long-term Bitcoin chart, comparing it to previous market cycles and the late 1990s tech boom.
His analysis suggests that Bitcoin may first experience a strong speculative rally, followed by another significant correction. While discussions mentioned a potential price of $1 million during this cycle, no timeline was provided, and no outcome is guaranteed.
The chart cited by van de Poppe shows that, based on a trendline connecting the previous five Bitcoin cycle lows, a conservative long-term forecast for 2030 is close to $197,000. While historical trendlines can serve as one way to observe price behavior, past cycles cannot reliably determine future valuations.
Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan has previously stated that Bitcoin could potentially reach $1 million if it attracts more demand from investors seeking a store of value. His framework compares Bitcoin to established assets used for long-term wealth preservation.
Rising from the reported price of $82,795 to $1 million represents an approximate 1,108% increase in Bitcoin. At the maximum supply of 21 million coins, a $1 million price per Bitcoin would correspond to a fully diluted valuation of $2.1 trillion.
This calculation is only intended to illustrate the potential scale and does not imply that such demand will definitely materialize. Bitcoin's current market capitalization remains far below this theoretical level.
A Bitcoin whale that had been dormant for 13 years transferred $34 million.
Another dynamic over the weekend was that a long-inactive Bitcoin wallet transferred approximately 411.45 BTC to a new address.
According to Arkham Intelligence’s wallet records, the original address has held the majority of these coins since September 2013. At that time, Bitcoin was priced at approximately $131, and when the wallet received around 411 BTC, the historical value of this balance was roughly $54,000.
This transfer occurred on October 18 at approximately 18:23 UTC, with funds sent to a relatively new SegWit address. At a Bitcoin price of approximately $82,795, the 411.45 BTC amounted to about $34.1 million.
The original address can be viewed in Arkham’s wallet records, while the receiving address is listed on the Bitcoin blockchain explorer.
In the provided on-chain analysis, the receiving address was not identified as an exchange, and no subsequent outgoing transactions were reported at this checkpoint. Transfers between wallets do not prove that the holder has sold Bitcoin.
This transfer follows large movements by other long-dormant holders. Earlier in October, another Bitcoin whale transferred 4,582 BTC, worth approximately $377.6 million, after being inactive for over six years.
In August this year, another dormant wallet transfer involved over 1,300 BTC being moved from an old address, with on-chain analysis failing to identify a clear exchange destination for the primary transaction group.
On October 18, the receiving wallet adopted the newer SegWit address format, which typically incurs lower transaction fees than the legacy format. According to the provided on-chain analysis, the original wallet's history also included a small number of unsolicited deposits, some of which were related to address poisoning attempts.
Disclosure: This article does not constitute investment advice. The content and materials on this page are for educational purposes only.