Capriole's energy-based model puts Bitcoin's market price about 36% below the model's fair value estimate. BeInCrypto Bitcoin price data puts BTC near $83,264 at press time, following a 2.3% increase over 24 hours. Capriole's Energy Value estimate stands at $131,057. Bitcoin would need to rise about 57% to reach that estimate.
Elon Musk, CEO of Tesla and SpaceX, predicted that future currency will use physical measures such as wattage and tonnage rather than dollars. Musk spoke with biographer Walter Isaacson on The Builders podcast in an interview recorded in early August and published on October 20. Musk argued that artificial intelligence and robotics will make work and money irrelevant. However, Musk did not predict that currency would disappear. Musk did not refer to Bitcoin during the interview. Musk had also written on X in June that energy and mass would replace dollars. Business Insider reported that the Bloomberg Billionaires Index put Musk's net worth at about $920 billion, making Musk the world's richest person.
Charles Edwards responded within hours, arguing that Bitcoin already operates according to an energy-based monetary concept. Edwards founded Capriole Investments and belongs to BeInCrypto's Market Intelligence Expert Council. Edwards considers the relationship between energy and price to be one-to-one. Edwards' 2019 paper calculates fair value using the electricity consumed by miners. The model uses hashrate, mining hardware efficiency, supply growth and a constant expressed in dollars per joule. Capriole argues that Bitcoin's price tends to return toward Energy Value over time. Unlike models based on scarcity, Energy Value would become zero if all miners shut down.
Bitcoin traded substantially above Energy Value around the market peaks in 2013, 2017 and 2021. However, prices below Energy Value coincided with market lows in 2015, 2018, 2020 and 2022. Bitcoin departed from that historical pattern during this cycle, following Energy Value throughout 2024 and 2025 without a speculative premium.
Blockchain.com data shows that Bitcoin's hashrate, the computing capacity securing the network, exceeded 1.1 zettahashes per second (ZH/s) in October 2025. Hashrate subsequently fell toward 900 exahashes per second (EH/s) as Bitcoin miners faced pressure. Hashrate has since recovered above 1 ZH/s. Bitcoin's price almost halved from the record reached in October 2025 before establishing a floor around $60,000 in June. The energy supporting the network changed little despite the large movement in Bitcoin's dollar price. JPMorgan recently estimated Bitcoin's production cost at $85,000, slightly above the current market price.
Proof-of-work connects Bitcoin to energy, but Bitcoin has no corresponding connection to mass. Bitcoin therefore matches only part of Musk's proposed framework. Musk could also be describing energy as the unit of account without any token. Tesla stopped accepting Bitcoin for cars in May 2021 because of the fossil fuels used in mining. Hashrate provides only an indirect indication of electricity consumption because newer mining equipment produces more hashes per watt. Bitcoin's energy consumption, which Musk previously cited as a drawback, now brings Bitcoin closer to Musk's monetary vision. Under that energy-based comparison, Bitcoin may resemble future money more closely than the dollar.
Bitcoin Price Below Energy Value Estimate, Elon Musk's Energy-Based Currency Idea Analyzed
BeInCryptoShare
Summary
Bitcoin price today remains below its energy-based fair value estimate of $131,057, according to Capriole’s model. Elon Musk suggested future currency could be tied to physical metrics like wattage. Charles Edwards argues Bitcoin already fits this model, using hashrate and mining efficiency. Blockchain.com shows hashrate above 1 ZH/s in 2025. JPMorgan puts Bitcoin’s production cost at $85,000, near current Bitcoin price prediction levels.
Source:Show original
Disclaimer: The information on this page may have been obtained from third parties and does not necessarily reflect the views or opinions of KuCoin. This content is provided for general informational purposes only, without any representation or warranty of any kind, nor shall it be construed as financial or investment advice. KuCoin shall not be liable for any errors or omissions, or for any outcomes resulting from the use of this information.
Investments in digital assets can be risky. Please carefully evaluate the risks of a product and your risk tolerance based on your own financial circumstances. For more information, please refer to our Terms of Use and Risk Disclosure.