At the core of Bitcoin’s market structure is miner conviction. The logic is straightforward: miners are typically the first cohort to capitulate when profitability comes under pressure.
As BTC weakens, shrinking revenues and tighter margins can force less-efficient miners offline as they struggle to cover operating costs.
Notably, on-chain data suggests that pressure has been building this cycle. As the chart below shows, Bitcoin’s hashrate has declined by more than 25% since October 2025, marking one of the longest sustained drawdowns on record.
This suggests a significant portion of mining capacity has exited the network as economic conditions have deteriorated.
Notably, the pressure isn’t just showing up in hashrate.
Instead, Bitcoin’s [BTC] Puell Multiple has fallen to 0.74, while miner revenues have declined by 11% over the past 10 days. This suggests miner profitability is becoming increasingly compressed, with revenues now sitting well below historical averages.
From a technical standpoint, this lines up with Bitcoin’s nearly 20% correction from its $75k peak, showing how the recent drawdown has started to weigh on miner economics.
Simply put, lower prices are translating into lower revenues, increasing the pressure on miners across the network.
A gradual build-up in Bitcoin miner pressure
Calling Bitcoin’s recent sell-off a full-fledged bear market may not be entirely premature.
Historically, major bear market phases have been accompanied by clear capitulation signals as conviction starts to break down across the network. The 2022 cycle is a textbook example.
As miner capitulation accelerated, selling pressure intensified, ultimately contributing to Bitcoin’s 65% drawdown.
In other words, miner stress moved hand in hand, making miner capitulation one of the clearest signals that the cycle had shifted into a deeper bearish phase.
In this cycle, miner profitability has also come under pressure, and the strain is starting to show on-chain. The Miner Capitulation Index has climbed above 65.
From a technical standpoint, a strong MCI reading indicates miner stress is building across the network.
In past cycles, similar spikes have often preceded periods of capitulation as rising costs and falling revenues begin to squeeze miner profitability.
Current market conditions appear to reflect a similar trend, with Bitcoin’s hashrate continuing to decline and miner revenues dropping 11% over the past 10 days, pointing to mounting pressure across the mining sector.
And while analysts note that miner stress remains below the levels seen in 2022, it is clearly trending higher. That suggests the market is still working through a period of miner stress, making a definitive Bitcoin bottom difficult to confirm for now.
Final Summary
- Miner stress is rising as hashrate falls and mining revenues continue to decline.
- Despite the pressure, miners have yet to show signs of widespread capitulation.