Popular analyst CryptoGoos outlined a remarkably simple BTC trading strategy that has successfully tracked and identified the asset’s most important cycle bottoms and tops.
If it plays out again, the next major buy signal could be happening as we speak (or as you read). The idea is quite interesting – instead of relying on complicated indicators, moving averages, and on-chain metrics, investors should look into the US midterm elections.
This striking historical pattern shows that Bitcoin has struggled during every previous midterm election year before recovering strongly once the vote was out of the way. That makes this year and the following several months highly interesting.
No Good Midterm Year
Given the fact that BTC was essentially an unknown internet magic money in 2010, we won’t count that midterm election year. Instead, we will focus on 2014, 2018, and 2022. A quick look into that shows that all three were ugly. 12 years ago, BTC had already collapsed following the extraordinary 2013 bull market and the failure of Mt. Gox.
Fast forward to the 2018 bear market, the cryptocurrency plunged from almost $20,000 to under $3,500. The 2022 example was no better, as the asset entered another brutal downturn amid aggressive Fed rate hikes, the deterioration of Terra/LUNA, and a broader crypto credit crisis. Days after the November 8 midterm election, FTX imploded, which resulted in the last leg down of that cycle with BTC slumping toward $16,000.
Research from CryptoQuant found that BTC declined by more than 60% during each of those three midterm election years. As such, the similarities with 2026 are hard to ignore. The cryptocurrency remains far below its October 2025 all-time high despite its most recent recovery.
Signal to Buy?
The more interesting part of CryptoGoos’ conclusion is what comes after the vote, as BTC has historically rebounded strongly in the 12 months following the US midterm elections. Data tracking the previous three cycles puts the average subsequent gain at over 50%.
Obviously, this doesn’t guarantee that the election itself mechanically leads to a sharp bitcoin price uptick. A more reasonable explanation is that midterm years tend to coincide with several conditions that can pressure risk assets, such as political uncertainty, reduced investor appetite, changing fiscal expectations, and, in BTC’s particular case, the historically weak part of its four-year cycle.
Once the election passes, one major source of uncertainty goes away, and markets can start pricing the next two years of fiscal, regulatory, and monetary policy with considerably more confidence.
If investors choose to follow CryptoGoos’ strategy and accumulate BTC now ahead of the midterms, the first sales should begin with a 25% offload next year, followed by a more significant 50% dump in 2028 and another 25% in the post-election 2029.
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