Bitcoin has remained range-bound ahead of the Fed's September interest rate meeting. Several analysts believe that, prior to the policy outcome, the market is more likely to oscillate repeatedly between $78,000 and $82,000 rather than immediately break out decisively.
As of press time, Bitcoin is trading at approximately $79,176, down 0.8% over the past 24 hours. According to CoinGecko data, the price ranged between $78,707 and $80,494 in the last day, with trading volume increasing to approximately $24.4 billion.
Selling pressure remains above $82,000
Bitfinex told crypto.news that the current movement is more akin to a "strong consolidation" rather than a confirmed upward breakout. Sustained buying pressure from spot ETFs has provided market support, but higher U.S. Treasury yields and expectations of potential further rate hikes by the U.S. continue to weigh on risk assets.
The report noted that Bitcoin previously attempted to hold above $80,000 but encountered selling pressure near $80,500, keeping prices within Bitfinex’s range of $77,200 to $82,100. CoinEx Chief Analyst Jeff Ko expects the trading range to narrow further ahead of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision.
He identified the short-term support range at $78,000 to $79,000, with the upper boundary near $82,000. If the price breaks below the lower support, the market may retest $77,200; if it breaks upward, it must first hold above $80,500 before having a chance to challenge the stronger resistance near $82,000.
ETF fund flows continue to provide support
Ko stated that, for the week ending September 4, U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a net inflow of $986.9 million, bringing the cumulative net inflow over the past three weeks to approximately $3.8 billion. Continued institutional capital inflows are a key reason Bitcoin has remained near $80,000 despite rising market expectations for interest rate hikes.
However, he also believes that three consecutive weeks of net inflows alone are not enough to confirm that the market has entered a stable long-term accumulation phase. If Bitcoin ETFs continue to see net inflows during periods of sideways movement or even price declines—rather than following rapid price increases driven by FOMO buying—it would be a stronger indication that demand from institutional allocators is growing.
The report also noted that U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs collectively attracted $3.52 billion in inflows in August, with net inflows recorded on 16 out of 21 trading days. Meanwhile, the price of Bitcoin rose from just above $60,000 toward approximately $80,000.
However, ETFs did not fully prevent the downturn in the first half of this year. The article cites previous data showing that in the first half of 2026, these funds collectively experienced net outflows of $5.29 billion, during which the price of Bitcoin fell from approximately $94,000 to $63,000.
Inflation data and interest rate decisions take center stage
Analysts view the Federal Open Market Committee meeting on September 15–16 as the key external factor that could determine whether the current range will be broken. The market is assessing whether the Fed will raise the federal funds rate target range by an additional 25 basis points, from its current level of 3.50% to 3.75%.
Before this, U.S. inflation data will first influence market expectations. The U.S. Producer Price Index will be released on September 10, and the Consumer Price Index on September 11. If inflation data exceeds expectations and pushes U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar higher, Bitcoin will face a more direct stress test.
Ko noted that the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield has recently risen above 4.34%, while the 10-year yield is nearing 4.8%. In this environment, yield-free assets typically find it harder to attract new capital, so the market will closely monitor whether ETF buying can continue to hold up amid higher yields.
U.S. Treasury repurchase operations attract attention
In addition to inflation and interest rates, the U.S. Treasury will expand its repurchase operations on September 9, which is also viewed as a barometer of liquidity in the bond market. Previously, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated that the single-operation limit for liquidity-supportive repurchases of nominal coupon Treasuries with maturities of 10 to 30 years will be increased from $2 billion to at least $4 billion, and this arrangement will remain in effect until November 4.
The report noted that after the adjustment was announced, the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield declined from its high, and the 10-year yield also fell in tandem. During the same period, Bitcoin rose 8.2% in less than 12 hours, climbing from $64,100 to $69,500. However, the Treasury did not confirm a direct causal link between the repo adjustment and this price increase.
Analysts will next focus on three key indicators: spot ETF flows, spot buying pressure near the current price, and Bitcoin’s response to changes in U.S. Treasury yields. A new directional move is more likely only if the price breaks above the $78,000 to $82,000 range accompanied by a significant increase in futures open interest.