Bitcoin may shift from a 4-year to a 6-8-year cycle, analyst says

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On-chain data suggests Bitcoin may be transitioning from a 4-year to a 6–8-year cycle, according to analyst Willy Woo. The impact of the halving is diminishing as new supply falls to 0.4% annually. Traditional markets exhibit a similar 6–8-year debt cycle, and on-chain data indicates this transition is already underway. Traders are also monitoring altcoins for opportunities amid this structural shift.

ChainThink reports that on September 3, on-chain analyst Willy Woo posted on X that Bitcoin may be gradually transitioning from a 4-year cycle to a 6- to 8-year cycle.

Woo noted that Bitcoin historically experienced a relatively regular four-year cycle influenced by the halving mechanism, but the supply shock from halvings is diminishing. Currently, the annual new supply of BTC accounts for approximately 0.8% of the total supply and will further decline to 0.4%.

Meanwhile, the short-term debt cycle in traditional financial markets typically lasts 6 to 8 years, and we may currently be in a transitional phase of this cycle’s structural shift.

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