On-chain data shows a recent increase in transactions from Bitcoin addresses holding coins for over five years. Analyst Darkfost reported that the 90-day spent output for this group has risen to approximately 1,500 BTC, nearly doubling since May this year. Meanwhile, Bitcoin continues to trade around $80,000, with no clear price breakout despite the increased activity.
The 90-day average rose to approximately 1,500 BTC.
A spent output refers to an old UTXO being used as an input in a new transaction. This metric can indicate whether old coins have been moved, but it does not directly indicate that these bitcoins have been sold.
According to the reported data, the current 90-day average of 1,500 BTC is approximately 56% higher than the 962 BTC recorded on June 24. At that time, the metric briefly fell below 1,000 BTC—the first such drop since November 2024—indicating that activity among long-term holders had reached its lowest level in nearly two years.
- In May 2024, daily transfers exceeded 10,000 BTC.
- On a single day in February 2025, daily transfers exceeded 30,000 BTC.
- Reached 142,000 BTC in September 2025
As of press time, Bitcoin is trading at approximately $79,600, down about 1.8% over the past 24 hours, with a daily range between $78,723 and $81,370. Despite multiple attempts to break above $80,000, the price has yet to sustainably hold above that level.
Moving old coins does not equal selling
The Bitcoin ledger records transaction outputs, not account balances. Therefore, whenever the holder transfers coins to a new address, the original output is marked as "spent." Such operations may involve depositing to an exchange, changing custodians, consolidating multiple addresses, splitting positions, or updating security settings.
Darkfost cautions that the average of 1,500 BTC should not be directly interpreted as confirmed selling pressure. Some transactions may simply reflect holders moving their assets to more secure storage environments following the Coldcard security incident, rather than exiting their positions.
Destination addresses are often more meaningful than mere on-chain transfers. If old wallets transfer coins to exchanges or trading companies that have been flagged, the market can more easily determine that these bitcoins have entered a tradable state. However, depositing into an exchange does not equate to having completed a sale.
A set of dormant wallet transfers in August illustrates this point. Over 10 days, six wallets that had been inactive for nearly 12 to over 15 years collectively transferred 553.59 BTC, equivalent to approximately $40.15 million at the time. Five of these transfers went to unmarked addresses, while another 40 BTC were sent to addresses associated with Boerse Stuttgart Digital. Based solely on these movements, it remains unclear whether the holders sold, changed custodians, or rebalanced their positions.
Coldcard incident interference judgment
The report states that a firmware vulnerability in Coldcard exposed mnemonic phrases generated by certain hardware wallets, prompting users to regenerate their seeds and transfer their assets. Since the old mnemonic phrases themselves are compromised, simply upgrading to the patched firmware does not resolve the issue.
In early August, K33 Research reported that approximately 890,000 BTC moved within seven days, marking the highest 7-day active supply since 2026. At the time, Bitcoin was trading within one of its narrowest 30-day volatility ranges since 2023, indicating that increased network activity did not correspond with a price breakout.
Research institutions believe that this surge in activity is partly linked to Coldcard users migrating their assets and attackers transferring stolen funds. Galaxy Research previously confirmed that, as of August 5, three rounds of attacks had stolen 1,596 BTC from approximately 7,300 addresses. The firm also estimates that if a fourth suspected attack is confirmed, total losses could rise to approximately 2,055 BTC.
Additional information: The report also noted that U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF investors do not directly manage private keys; custody is handled by the funds and their service providers. However, there is currently no verified data on fund flows indicating that the Coldcard incident has directly driven increased demand for ETFs.