Bitcoin implied volatility hits long-term support bottom; analysts warn of hidden volatility risk

Huo Xing Finance reports that Bitcoin’s 30-day implied volatility has retreated to the long-term support level of 36%, with the price remaining in a narrow range below $65,000. Adam Haeems, Head of Asset Management at Tesseract Group, noted that low-volatility environments suppress trading costs, encouraging traders to build large directional bets and hedging positions; should the price break through key levels, market makers’ passive hedging activities could amplify price movements and trigger a mean-reverting rebound in volatility. On market sentiment, Paul-Howard, Senior Director at Wincent, stated that demand for put options has significantly cooled, while call options also lack buying interest. Glassnode characterizes this condition as “no money buying for upside, no money buying for downside,” suggesting such a state often precedes a market cycle bottom. The divergence between Dogecoin and Bitcoin further reflects sustained speculative apathy. Howard believes that positive regulatory developments, such as the Clarity Act, which could drive institutional ETF inflows, may serve as the next major catalyst; meanwhile, failed negotiations in the Strait of Hormuz and unexpectedly high inflation remain key downside risks.